Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

[SKB]

Just been reading more about the referendum. It seems the 23rd June EU referendum is not actually legally binding until the UK Government formally initiates Article 50. The referendum could - theoretically - be used as a government public opinion poll and the government could - if it chose to - not initiate Article 50 and keep the UK in the EU against public will - theoretically.

Could you imagine the fury on Britain's streets if that were to happen? 10% of the Pounds value wasted for nothing. There would be a public uprising and a march on Parliament! It might be like the closing scene from 'V For Vendetta', but without the Guy Fawkes masks!

The people who have petitioned for a second EU referendum are delusional if they think the government will change its mind and ignore the majority of people who voted for the UK to leave the EU. It would be political suicide. If we were prevented from leaving the EU, It would further damage the UK economy and show the world that the UK government could no longer be trusted. Having a second referendum would not magically erase the 8% damage to the pounds value, the damage has already been done and having a second referendum would destroy any remaining hope in the UK markets.

So to those people who have petitioned for Referendum #2, you are wasting your time and are further damaging the UK's reputation. It isn't a game where you get to re-run events until you get the outcome you wish for. Grow up, and accept we are leaving by a majority choice, like it or not.

[handal]

Can we have that ludicrous and 2 faced 75%/60% for scotland too...or are "our" politicians going to stab us in the back..again..?

It amazes me how anyone was meant to believe that sturgeon was not just waiting, after our only vote on sovereignty for 43 years, to re-referendumb and stab us all in the back, while the EU produced video's of how they intended to slice up the yummy GB pie for themselves

Seriously they could not even keep the piggy gleam out of their eyes or the drool off of their federalist ( the pc term I'm meant to use for Natonal Socialism...apparently ) chins.

[R686]

this just popped up over at The Mess



I don't follow UK procedure on this type of thing but wouldn't the UK Parliament trump the Scottish Parliament as it is the supreme legislative body across the UK>

[handal]

Yup and all the time as they say they respect Sovereign nations of the EU while acting to divide sovereignty and do "special" little regional deals...invariable against their own and international law..:S

Sovereignty was not devolved/discussed...only regional political governance; but still they slipped it in. Should tell anyone all they need to know about what kind of "Socialists" they are really dealing with in fact.

Thank you for that as I have no doubt the 3 month stall is just the beginning of "we know better" as it did not go the way the vested interest parties and banksters were counting on for their PR "I'm the greatest" soundbite after a remain vote.

[SKB]

Here's an idea. There is a country which has part of itself in the EU while the other part leaves.... Denmark (In) and Greenland (Out).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland ... _relations

[handal]

I completely agree SKB..and the spins will go on until democracy is again made meaningless..again.

It will be irrelevant to the EU'ers whether the sovereign nation ceded it's rights voluntarily or not.
The media, Eire, Scotaland et al are already disregarding sovereignty while claiming we are being cavalier and disregarding their "rights".

To miss quote Winston; This is not the end of the beginning, but the beginning of the end :[

I don't believe it will ever be allowed by "The powers that be"...which is why I said to you a day or so ago that I hope you are right.
I think the quick exit ( they wrote in 2 yr's...ffs; to cover just such an unforseen occurance in my opinion..) is just a typical Eu smokescreen..

[R686]

couple of quick questions

what model is used for referendum ie majority rule or double majority?
is voting compulsory?


only reason I ask it I looked up the under the Australian Constitution any changes of this magnitude can only be changed via referendum and to be approved by the constitutionally required double majority, which is that is, (1) a majority in each of a majority of the six States (4 of the 6), and (2) a majority nationally. Voting in a referendum is compulsory for those on the electoral roll, in the same way that it is compulsory to vote in an Australian general election.

since 1906, only eight of 44 proposals put to a referendum have been approved by the constitutionally required double majority

if the double majority is used then there has to be a majority of the people and majority of nation's in your case 3 out 4 was this the case?

[Pseudo]

Just been reading more about the referendum. It seems the 23rd June EU referendum is not actually legally binding until the UK Government formally initiates Article 50. The referendum could - theoretically - be used as a government public opinion poll and the government could - if it chose to - not initiate Article 50 and keep the UK in the EU against public will - theoretically.

Fundamentally Boris doesn't want to leave the EU. Anyone with any acquaintance with his positions before he joined the Leave campaign knows that. In what he thought was the unlikely event of the UK voting to leave, he wanted (beyond Dave's job) was to use the referendum as a jumping off point for renegotiating the UK's terms of membership.

Could you imagine the fury on Britain's streets if that were to happen? 10% of the Pounds value wasted for nothing. There would be a public uprising and a march on Parliament! It might be like the closing scene from 'V For Vendetta', but without the Guy Fawkes masks!

Whoever becomes PM will struggle to keep heal such a starkly divided nation and I expect that whatever happens there will be public protests. Our major political parties are as deeply divided as the public are and I struggle to see where we'll get the strong and unified political leadership from that we'll need to see the country through what is going to be an very tumultuous time.

The people who have petitioned for a second EU referendum are delusional if they think the government will change its mind and ignore the majority of people who voted for the UK to leave the EU.

I signed it, but I don't think that I'm delusional. I don't expect that it'll have much of an effect, but I figured that it couldn't do any harm. Though frankly they best laugh I've had this weekend is the irony of the petition being started by a leave supporter.

It would be political suicide. If we were prevented from leaving the EU, It would further damage the UK economy and show the world that the UK government could no longer be trusted. Having a second referendum would not magically erase the 8% damage to the pounds value, the damage has already been done and having a second referendum would destroy any remaining hope in the UK markets.

The damage hasn't even really begun, but it'll be a slow bleed from here on in.

So to those people who have petitioned for Referendum #2, you are wasting your time and are further damaging the UK's reputation. It isn't a game where you get to re-run events until you get the outcome you wish for. Grow up, and accept we are leaving by a majority choice, like it or not.

I'm still not entirely convinced that we will leave. The leave campaign's implication that immigration would drastically fall has been repudiated by most of the campaigns leading figures, so even if we do fully leave there'll be a lot of the core Leave vote that will feel betrayed anyway.

Interesting times, eh? There's a reason why hoping that someone would live in them was a Chinese curse.

[SKB]

@R686. Voting is not compulsory, there is no financial penalty for not voting either. Voting, though encouraged, is not and never has been mandatory.

[R686]

@R686. Voting is not compulsory, there is no financial penalty for not voting either. Voting, though encouraged, is not and never has been mandatory.

as you guessed by the above post we have compulsory voting, does anyone think if you had to vote would it have changed the outcome.

And I am in favour of compulsory voting

[Halidon]

It amazes me how anyone was meant to believe that sturgeon was not just waiting, after our only vote on sovereignty for 43 years, to re-referendumb and stab us all in the back, while the EU produced video's of how they intended to slice up the yummy GB pie for themselves
.

An interesting take. I'd point out that the Scottish referendum was defeated partly on the strength of the "as long as the UK remains in the EU, we're better off all in together" argument, and from the perspective of the moderate/on-the-fence Scotsman it appears the English just stabbed them in the back by rewarding their display of Unity with a vote to get out of the EU. Sturgeon may well have been plotting/scheming/whatevering for another chance at a referendum, but she'd not have any support for it from the electorate in general had a big, fat, shiny opportunity just been handed to her by the Brexit result.

[Halidon]

Here's an idea. There is a country which has part of itself in the EU while the other part leaves.... Denmark (In) and Greenland (Out).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland ... _relations

Greenland is autonomous. It's possible Scotland would accept a similar status over outright independence, but it would take pretty careful negotiations which could easily fail on any number of sticking points. Personally, if you're going that dramatic I think a better option for all would be to reform the UK as a federal union of states/kingdoms. Not only would it suit Scotland better than something more ill-defined, but it would give England and Wales (either seperately or together) similar self-governance and thus give the many angry/resentful people living between the outskirts of London and the border of Scotland a more direct voice. However, that would require a lot more effort and political capital than anyone anywhere in the UK's government seems capable of at the moment, the major parties seem more wiling to blunder from one crisis to another instead.

[marktigger]

The best analysis I have seen of the current situation in the UK & Europe was on this morning's Andrew Marr show he and Andrew Neil's analysis show how divided the UK is and this hasn't been a recent thing. The same on Mainland europe.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... w-26062016

[FuNsTeR]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-s ... s-36633244

seriously who does she think she is that she thinks can dictate to England ? I am seriously losing patience I wish they would just go

[SKB]

Ignore her. She think's she's Prime Minister of Scotland. She isn't, she's just a regional governor with the lofty title "First Minister" in a Scottish Parliament which is subservient to the Westminster one. It was a UK-wide referendum actioned from an Act from the UK-wide Westminster Parliament. Not from Holyrood.

[handal]

Omg...it gets worse..about 33 mins in..



Jonathan Freedland/The Guardian spinning Bufoon Boris as the next leader on Bloomberg..there really is no limit to a politicians or their media advocates shameless stupidity :/

I gotta take a bye on the 50/50 backstabbing though Hal..;] Try selling dem apples to a US cop

I do feel very sorry for the likes of Retro and pseudo though that we get even less rights than Eire to a 2nd vote and that the EU are not even slightly inclined to engage their euro voters in GB not that it suprises me; nor do I gloat.

Just imagine if this 2yr's break was to go through meaning after 6 billion fee and the continual trading loss their non favourable quickie divorce ( yawns...), costing us even more..err..yup loss and credit slavery to europe, that a independane England/Wales will somehow magically fund Eire and Scotland...and that they would/could not go bankrupt..?!

It seems to me that the EU "leaders" are completely disconnected from reality...did they not notice that even more came off of many of their stockmarkets and stayed off than ours..?!

[WhiteWhale]

It seems to me that the EU "leaders" are completely disconnected from reality...did they not notice that even more came off of many of their stockmarkets and stayed off than ours..?!

There has essentially only been one days trading since the referendum so nothing has had time to stabilise yet, also follow the FTSE 250 rather then the 100 as that is more representative of UK based companies rather then less exposed multinationals. I expect the EU nations to rebound significantly quicker especially as the UK is now essentially leaderless and is entering an era of massive uncertainty.

The now inevitability of a Scottish referendum will reduce confidence, the Irish one less so, uncertainty over the leadership race will also do damage. The EU figure heads will be looking to make the UK bleed over this and breaking their perfect union will not be forgiven, they will do everything they can to punish the UK and damage our dissuade others from considering leaving.

So we are currently at the state of-

No established trade relations with Europe, with whom we now re in a state of outright hostility.
Not knowing who the PM is and the top three have all disappeared off the face of the Earth.
Not knowing who the head of the opposition will be as Labour have torn themselves apart and this may force local elections.
Not knowing when art 50 will be declared* as apparently there was no plan in place for a leave vote.
Not knowing if multinationals will stay in London now the EU trade passport will be lost, already several thousand job 'movements' have been announced.
Facing further referendums to see if the UK will be split further.
Becoming the laughing stock of the world for a while.
And with a big chunk of uncertainty about whether the referendum was actually representative, many expat's never got the chance to vote and many votes were protests by people who thought remain was going to walk it.
The population is divided and angry. (To be fair the fact there has been no real violence or rioting since is the only way the UK has come out of this with a tiny tiny bit of decent reputation.)

All in all an unmitigated disaster.

IF cameron had stayed on for continuities sake, IF there was plan on leave, IF the result was more definitive then decisive and IF the Scots won't leave then *maybe* the UK could recover in a couple of years and face down the challenge of an EU out for blood. But now? With no leader and only squabbling... The world markets are going to strip us to the bone.


*Some EU heads insist it already has been due to some vagueness in the wording but it's definitely a minority.

[handal]

A question.

Is it not article 50 being declared that means we are still a member but not allowed to go to meetings, partake and vote ?

If so are they not in breach of their own charter, or do I have that wrong ?

[WhiteWhale]

A question.

Is it not article 50 being declared that means we are still a member but not allowed to go to meetings, partake and vote ?

If so are they not in breach of their own charter, or do I have that wrong ?

This is where it gets iffy, we are a normal member up until the moment we state intention to leave (a few of the EU talking heads are already trying to say that the ref itself constitutes that) so Cameron has to go to Europe and start negotiation of a withdrawal but any such actions *is* stating intent to leave. As soon as he sites down he will be asked by the current EU head (ironically if he had waited a year that would have been him..) if the UK intends to leave, he can either say 'no', in which case the already non-binding referendum is thrown away and chaos from the leave camp will start, he can say 'yes' in which case article 50 is immediately implements and the EU heads will start the process of outright trade war with the UK (the leave outcome will also be ensured so expect another market hit) or he can refuse to answer and that would be... Very different... And very risky, he could be thrown out of proceedings but that's unlikely~ish.

[handal]

Well even though the ref was non binding he said resign...but in 3 months = WTF and extend the chaos and uncertainty even more than the 2 yr's to me :S

Agree and enjoyed the rest of your posts though it's always been clear to me that they won't honour the referendum if at all possible.

[WhiteWhale]

Well even though the ref was non binding he said resign...but in 3 months = WTF and extend the chaos and uncertainty even more than the 2 yr's to me :S

Agree and enjoyed the rest of your posts though; it's always been clear to me that they won't honour the referendum if at all possible.

Cameron was kind of boned as his position was now mostly untenable *but* announcing his retirement and a leadership battle the day after was incredibly irresponsible, the markets were already being wrecked by uncertainty and he has essentially left the UK leaderless at the time it needs one the most. Where is he? He should have been on the news every hour since reassuring the country and international power brokers that there was a plan but we have heard nothing from any 'representative'.

Also as an aside UK reps have already been excluded from several EU meetings so that didn't take long!

[handal]

Totally agreed again. It's a totally irresponsible cluster~ either way :[

[R686]

I don't agree that you have become the laughing stock of the world, its the general population and the reaction to the result calling for a second referendum that's the only joke.

Didn't Cameron say at the beginning that if he lost he would resign true to his word if you ask me (but I don't think it was necessary)

Regarding Scotland no matter which way the vote went they would have found another avenue to look for an exit vote

[SKB]

I'm glad we're out. No more Euro currency or Eurozone Area. No more bailouts. No more Schengen Area... wait, we didn't HAVE those in Britain?!
Almost as if we were never really in it anyway. As a bonus, we escape being forced into accepting TTIP too

[Pseudo]

Didn't Cameron say at the beginning that if he lost he would resign true to his word if you ask me (but I don't think it was necessary)

No, he specifically ruled out resigning because he feared that people would vote to leave just to get rid of him. Of course, by resigning he has handed the most poisoned of chalices to his successor.

In other news, Boris' Telegraph column reads like a tacit admission that he didn't expect to win, didn't want to win and now has no clue what to do next and no stomach for the fight.