donald_of_tokyo wrote: ↑04 Dec 2023, 22:38
MRSS must be built.
After that, what will come?
The starting point has to be the realisation that funding cannot be cut further and if it does the U.K. will drop below the NATO threshold.
That funding allows three yards to build simultaneously, at least in the short term, at Govan/Scotstoun, Rosyth and Belfast but is this funding level sustainable or is RN getting a higher proportion of the in-year budget to temporarily boost the UK shipbuilding sector ? IMO, allowing yards to close now that have just been given huge investment in infrastructure to improve efficiency would be unforgivable. It mustn’t happen. RN must understand that keeping three major construction yards open is beneficial to everyone including RN/RFA.
Therefore the first priority is realism within the MoD/RN as to what is achievable, affordable and realistic. Increasing mass must be prioritised but consideration must also be given to the headcount issues. Lean manned vessels may not be ideal but unfortunately it’s the only realistic option now.
The other priority is giving industry confidence in future investment. To a certain extent the MoD is doing this with the shipbuilding pipeline but then gets criticised by the NAO for uncosted aspirations. The benefits of such a policy far outweigh the negative headlines. Industry can align for future contracts and the workforce understands that to gain the contracts the yards must be productive and efficient thereby keeping industrial action to a minimum.
With T26 and T31 in build and FSS contracted the order books are in good shape but what comes after is the big question. Rosyth really deserves some certainty before the election next year as any new administration will conduct a SDSR in 2025 which will effectively stop the drumbeat at Rosyth until completion. Totally unacceptable.
The most realistic options for Rosyth are a T31 Batch2, a class of OPVs, a new design MROSS or a small class of LSVs. Anything else will take too long to crystallise and a gap will occur.
Babcock already have the T31 Batch2 design underway with the A140 MNP.
IMG_1410.jpeg
The MNP looks good but more work needs to be done on the A & B positions to install 32x Mk41 cells or as a minimum locate 32x CAMM elsewhere in the hull and add 24x Mk41 cells to either A or B.
The A140 MNP is exactly what the T31 should have been. A class of five at £400m unit would be excellent value but a total programme cost of £2.5bn would seem more realistic. But is it a priority? Can RN find the crews for 16 active escorts if 24 escorts are secured? The numbers dovetail well if RN can regularly crew 4x T45, 7x T31 and 5x T26 as 16 active escorts. This is current planning and the rationale is clear.
The big question is, can RN find £2.5bn to fund Rosyth between 2026 and 2033? That’s the question that only HMT can answer.
If the answer is no then Rosyth will have to cut production and concentrate on the other loose ends.
• 3x RB1 replacements - 80m @£80m unit.
• 3x LSV - 80m LOA @£80m unit.
• MROSS - 100m LOA @£125m unit.
It’s pretty clear that the RB1 replacement and LSV programs could be merged successfully. The replacements need to be larger but not necessarily more complex than the vessels they are replacing. A wider role of EEZ patrol, MCM and protecting critical undersea infrastructure seems sensible. With Sterling Castle and Proteus now added to the fleet work can begin to establish if a PSV/OPV hybrid is the preferred direction of travel for a merged MCM and patrol program. The case for a single class of 8 to 10 multi role vessels (based on a commercial PSV design) to ultimately replace the RB1’s, MCMV’s, Sterling Castle and Proteus is strong IMO.
That 10x vessel £1bn program would keep Rosyth going until 2030. Thereafter the T32 or T31B2 program can commence to 2037 or 2045 if the original T31 batch directly replace the RB2’s or are gradually sold off and replaced by the T31B2. Occasional exports could bulk out the order book further.
That would amount to 15x Frigates plus 10x LSV’s from £5.5bn between 2020 and 2045 which is sustainable as a baseline but pretty marginal.