The war in Ukraine

[ArmChairCivvy]

Only the first of the ripple waves
https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... at-imports

The next one will be if fertilizer availability will be curtailed in different ways: so the harvest that soon will need to be planted might not turn out as what it is supposed to be (the northern hemisphere that is).

[SW1]

Only the first of the ripple waves
https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... at-imports

The next one will be if fertilizer availability will be curtailed in different ways: so the harvest that soon will need to be planted might not turn out as what it is supposed to be (the northern hemisphere that is).

Is it something like 1/3 of the worlds wheat comes from Ukraine and Russia?

Titanium will be up there to, Boeing pretty much paid for a high end facility in Yekaterinburg with VSMPO.

[Tempest414]

Russian tank crew murdering two elderly civilians who were just out driving in their car:

Fucking scum I hope a British NLAW sends them to Hell some where down the road

[Phil Sayers]

Looks like the MiGs are going ahead:

https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/statem ... to-ukraine

[ArmChairCivvy]

Those are by far the best ones... and as the fleet is 'not small' they must have a good number of missiles to go with them.

I bet they disappear in ones and twos from Ramstein... low-low-low. And miraculously appear on various airfields within Ukraine.
- air defence radars in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania detect 'nothing'

[Phil Sayers]

Getting the US to do the actual transfer seems a clever way of hopefully avoiding Poland being too exposed to potential Kremlin responses.

[dmereifield]

Those are by far the best ones... and as the fleet is 'not small' they must have a good number of missiles to go with them.

I bet they disappear in ones and twos from Ramstein... low-low-low. And miraculously appear on various airfields within Ukraine.

Wowser - fair play to Poland and the US. Big news.

How much if an impact will this have? Do the Ukrainoans have enough pilots and airfields still operable for this to make a meaningful difference?

[Enigmatically]

Well Ukraine claim most of their air force is intact so I assume they have airfields still. Remarkable as that sounds.
Though repairing airfields doesn't take long with the right resources.

I'm more worried about how many pilots they have

Good on Poland.

[SKB]

"Putin's Power and Western Impotence"

(Talk Radio) 7th March 2022

A Talk Radio interview with historian Dr David Starkey. Please watch the whole thing to the end.

[swoop]

Yes, could be the begining of a climbdown, if this turns out to be a true negotiating position. In addition, though, they want Ukraine to change its constitution to forbid joining any international organisations such as the EU and Nato, and for Ukraine to demilitarise. Clearly something that Ukraine can't accept since that would leave Ukraine vulnerable and susceptible to future Russian aggression

It is interesting that China has taken a back seat. They obviously want to see a weakened Russia who is then easier to manipulate.
None of their claims on Russia's far east have been recinded...


As for the Polish -29's that is superb news indeed.
They are not too worried about needing a runway to operate from either. "The Ghost" and squadron mates operated from dispersed locations, specifically to avoid the standard russian playbook doctrine of hitting airfields at the commencement of hostilities.
The -29 has a system where the frontal engine intakes close-off when there is pressure on the landing gear and intake doors open on the upper section of the intakes - specifically to avoid ingesting FOD. Quite a clever system.

[Phil Sayers]

The Pentagon have just released a statement saying they don't believe Poland's proposal is "tenable" but that they are continuing discussions about it. Seems its off again unfortunately.

[Lord Jim]

With acts like that it must be getting more and more difficult for Western Powers and their allies not to do something, if they have any intention of up holding international law as they say they wish to. Putin may wish to scare many Politicians by declaring Russia's nuclear Forces are on heightened alert, but I cannot see his Generals actually carry out an order to actually fire even their "Tactical" weapons. They know what NATOS response is likely to be and the fact that Russia will be made a pariah that even its allies such as China will not be willing to help.

It needs to be recognised by all that in the 20th Century we had Adolf Hitler, now in the 21st Century we have Vladimir Putin. They have both followed the same play book, and the latter needs to be stopped now. Yes War hurts our economies and the cost of living in our countries etc. but this is a commitment we all need to make. The dangers of not doing so far outweigh those of acting now as far as I am concerned. For a start, NATO need to properly equip the "Volunteers" wishing to fight in Ukraine. Private Contractors need to be hired by NATO and its allies to train the units in western Ukraine including how to operate Tanks and other AFVs drawn from the inventories of eastern NATO members. We cannot permit Russia to devastate Ukrainian Cities like it did to those in Syria.

[dmereifield]

The Pentagon have just released a statement saying they don't believe Poland's proposal is "tenable" but that they are continuing discussions about it. Seems its off again unfortunately.

FFS, the Ukrainians are literally fighting for their lives, get the damn planes to them ASAP. Ukrainian farmers will pick the fucking things up if needs be and tow them across the border!

[Caribbean]

The Pentagon have just released a statement saying they don't believe Poland's proposal is "tenable" but that they are continuing discussions about it. Seems its off again unfortunately.

FFS, the Ukrainians are literally fighting for their lives, get the damn planes to them ASAP. Ukrainian farmers will pick the fucking things up if needs be and tow them across the border!

Exactly what we did on the US/ Canada border in WW2 (as you know, I'm sure). My grandfather was heavily involved in the process of preparing the larger aircraft to fly across the Atlantic from Gander, while the fighters went to Halifax to be crated up and transferred by ship. This would be a doddle, by comparison. I have a few potential scenarios in mind, but won't post them here.

[dmereifield]

The Pentagon have just released a statement saying they don't believe Poland's proposal is "tenable" but that they are continuing discussions about it. Seems its off again unfortunately.

FFS, the Ukrainians are literally fighting for their lives, get the damn planes to them ASAP. Ukrainian farmers will pick the fucking things up if needs be and tow them across the border!

Exactly what we did on the US/ Canada border in WW2 (as you know, I'm sure). My grandfather was heavily involved in the process of preparing the larger aircraft to fly across the Atlantic from Gander, while the fighters went to Halifax to be crated up and transferred by ship. This would be a doddle, by comparison. I have a few potential scenarios in mind, but won't post them here.

Yes, indeed. They need to get on with it!

[Tempest414]

This should not be so public the Polish should have just said they were retiring there Mig 29 fleet due to problems and getting F-16's in there place they then should just have given them a shot coat of grey paint and said nothing more and let Russia thinking were the jets keep coming from

what makes me roll my eyes is the US has been pushing for this and then says it can't be seen to getting its hands dirty

[SW1]

May explain the mig story

[Phil Sayers]

"Deborah Haynes@haynesdeborah·18mBREAKING:

UK has supplied Ukraine with 3,615 NLAW anti-tank weapons & rising, will shortly start delivery of a "small consignment" of anti-tank Javelin missiles & is exploring gifting anti-aircraft missiles, Defence Secretary @BWallaceMP tells MPs

The Defence Secretary says: "Everything we do is bound by the decision to supply defensive systems & are calibrated not to escalate to a strategic level." (Seeking to assure MPs gifting of weapons isn't at such a level that would put UK into direct military conflict with Russia)"

Looks like we are sending some Javelin and may be sending some Starstreak (I have read that the latter take quite a bit of training).

[Phil Sayers]

May explain the mig story

I think it has dawned on the Russians that they are not going to be able to achieve their initial maximalist goals (or at least not at a cost they can afford to pay). Meanwhile Ukraine is well positioned to carry on the fight if needs be but if an acceptable deal can be done that is infinitely better than many more lost lives. The article was interesting in that apparently both sides have softened positions - Russia now only wants to have the Donbass 'demilitarised', seem to have dropped all mention of 'de-nazified' and meanwhile Ukraine have 'cooled' on NATO membership.

https://www.axios.com/israel-russia-ukr ... 38dd8.html

I think a deal could be there to be done, something along these lines:

1. Immediate ceasefire and retreat by Russia back to the frontlines before the current fighting started.

2. Ukraine agrees not to apply for NATO membership for at least 30 years.

3. Ukraine recognises the theft of Crimea and commits to urge allies to do the same.

4. Accepts a Russian military occupation of a portion of the Donbass for ten years (the portion previously occupied by their proxies).

5. After 10 years an internationally supervised referendum occurs in both parts of the Donbass (i.e including that held by Ukraine) on whether they should remain in Ukraine, become properly independent or become a part of Russia. If it is clear that majorities in one part want to remain Ukrainian and others want to be part of Russia split the Donbass up. Realistically, Ukraine will know that Russia will completely rig the referendum in 'their' portion of the Donbass and it is therefore likely that part is gone forever.

6. In exchange for all of the above (and to avoid the disaster getting even worse for them) Russia agrees to drop all objection to the early entry of Ukraine into the EU (it may be that this is only viable after borders are sorted following the referendum) but they could spend that ten years getting themselves in the best position to join straightaway as soon as the ten years is up. This will be an acid test of whether Russia's objection is truly to NATO membership or whether it is about fearing a prosperous, democratic state on their border.

7. Russia accepts that the West will continue to modernise and strengthen Ukraine's armed forces but the West commits not to provide them with weapons that would have a deep reach into Russia.

8. The West comes up with a massive financial package to rebuild the damage done and strengthen Ukrainian institutions ready for EU membership.

All of the above would require enormous sacrifices for Ukraine but would at least end the fighting immediately and give them a clear path to achieve their main aspiration of joining the EU.

Russia should accept the way out with thankful open arms. If they don't then just continue the war until they do.

[Lord Jim]

I am getting really pissed off with Politicians and their determination to prevent an escalation of the war at all costs. What would have happened in 1939 if France and the British Empire had refused to do anything about the German invasion of Poland, instead trying to negotiate a solution to Germany's demands, and not declaring war. Germany would have gained control of Poland and part of teh Baltic States, whilst its partner the Soviet Union would have gained the remainder of the Baltic States. Would Germany have supported the USSR in their war with Finland? How would we have responded to Germany securing its northern flank and the exports they needed from Sweden by occupying Denmark and then Norway. If we were not willing to defend Poland, would be act on Germany's intentions for These two countries. France in the meantime would probably have become even more defensive and unwilling to antagonise Germany.

Going to war with Germany in 1939 was necessary to prevent German's further expansion at the cost of sovereign nations rights and territory. We know it was going to impact our country and have severe repercussion both during and after. Great Britain ended the Second World War bankrupt, but we had achieved what we set out to do, though were unable to stop the USSR claiming control of eastern europe as the US id not want further confrontation even though they were the only nation with the A-Bomb.

We should not be afraid of antagonising Russia in the level and type of Military aid we give to the Ukraine. I am not suggesting sending in the British Army just yet, but their is more we can do as can the other members of NATO. The Polish Mig-29s is a classic example. Listening to news discussions you got the impression many of those interviewed believed the plan was for the Migs to be flown to Ramstein AFB, repainted in Ukrainian colours and flown from there against Russian forces in Ukraine. Poland nor the USA wanted to be seen as carrying out this operation as a sovereign state but rather wanted the donation done as a gesture by NATO. Individuals countries seem to be afraid of being singled out by Russia. Why, if they are attacked it is an article 5 violation, and if conducted in the grey zone, well two can play at that game. But it all comes down to not wanting an escalation that would cause other nations to be affected by Russia's actions. Would Putin even move against NATO as he has promised? Would he want to escalate an conflict that is not going as planned and is wrecking his country's economy? AS for Ukraine joining NATO, well they might agree to formally give the Crimea and the eastern regions to Russia, but they will want NATO's protection in return to prevent further Russians aggression, meaning NATO troops and planes based in Ukraine.

[Phil Sayers]

The British Army have just confirmed that a 'small number' of AWOL personnel are believed to have headed to Ukraine to join the fight. I guess first and foremost is that hopefully they all get back safe and sound. Secondly, they will be in big trouble when they do come back. Would be a PR disaster if Russia manages to take any active duty British soldiers POW.

[SW1]

Migs dead as a door nail by the looks of it

[wargame_insomniac]

I am getting really pissed off with Politicians and their determination to prevent an escalation of the war at all costs. What would have happened in 1939 if France and the British Empire had refused to do anything about the German invasion of Poland, instead trying to negotiate a solution to Germany's demands, and not declaring war. Germany would have gained control of Poland and part of teh Baltic States, whilst its partner the Soviet Union would have gained the remainder of the Baltic States. Would Germany have supported the USSR in their war with Finland? How would we have responded to Germany securing its northern flank and the exports they needed from Sweden by occupying Denmark and then Norway. If we were not willing to defend Poland, would be act on Germany's intentions for These two countries. France in the meantime would probably have become even more defensive and unwilling to antagonise Germany.

Going to war with Germany in 1939 was necessary to prevent German's further expansion at the cost of sovereign nations rights and territory. We know it was going to impact our country and have severe repercussion both during and after. Great Britain ended the Second World War bankrupt, but we had achieved what we set out to do, though were unable to stop the USSR claiming control of eastern europe as the US id not want further confrontation even though they were the only nation with the A-Bomb.

We should not be afraid of antagonising Russia in the level and type of Military aid we give to the Ukraine. I am not suggesting sending in the British Army just yet, but their is more we can do as can the other members of NATO. The Polish Mig-29s is a classic example. Listening to news discussions you got the impression many of those interviewed believed the plan was for the Migs to be flown to Ramstein AFB, repainted in Ukrainian colours and flown from there against Russian forces in Ukraine. Poland nor the USA wanted to be seen as carrying out this operation as a sovereign state but rather wanted the donation done as a gesture by NATO. Individuals countries seem to be afraid of being singled out by Russia. Why, if they are attacked it is an article 5 violation, and if conducted in the grey zone, well two can play at that game. But it all comes down to not wanting an escalation that would cause other nations to be affected by Russia's actions. Would Putin even move against NATO as he has promised? Would he want to escalate an conflict that is not going as planned and is wrecking his country's economy? AS for Ukraine joining NATO, well they might agree to formally give the Crimea and the eastern regions to Russia, but they will want NATO's protection in return to prevent further Russians aggression, meaning NATO troops and planes based in Ukraine.

The key difference is that UK and France had a clear Treaty with Poland in 1939 and that we don't have a Treaty with Ukraine now. Now you could argue that we definitely have a moral duty to support Ukraine, including US and UK having signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances back in 1994.

In retrospect the US repeatedly ruling out military internvention in Ukraine did Ukraine no favours. If back in Jan 2022 the US and UK had deployed say 10,000 troops into Ukraine for "exercises" with Ukranian armd forces, that might have been enough of a tripwire to deter Putin attacking. Or it might have pushed him into attacking earlier - who knows.....

[SW1]

Like we did in 2020

https://www.forces.net/news/hundreds-uk ... -exercises

I suspect the current US president doesn’t really have any interest in committing US troops anywhere played into putins calculations. As there not interested then no one else is interested (credible to Russia).

Then again most of the establishment insisted it what a bluff despite having excellent intelligence it wasn’t.

[Pseudo]

In the event that the US congress passes this $13.6bn aid bill in the next few days I don't see why Ukraine couldn't just offer to buy those Polish MiG-29's.