The war in Ukraine

[Phil Sayers]

I appreciate that it is Ukraine who are desperate for some more MiGs and they will know their defence requirements better than I but I do wonder just how sensible it is as opposed to just requesting more and more air defence weaponry so they can engage anything in the sky with it?

[Enigmatically]

One thing does already seem clear to me and that is that unless this madness has ended before the end of the month it is likely that Russia's casualties will already be in excess of what the USSR suffered (circa 14,000) in ten years of war in Afghanistan. A war that was one of the main reasons for the collapse of the USSR.

I think the rate will drop off (indeed the last few days have already seen fewer convoys savaged) simply because those big fat dumb and convoys are no longer there. The Russian troops are either dead, more wary or have fled.

There are (unverified) reports claiming to be from a disgruntled FSB analyst that claim the Russian economy will be toast by June also.

My main concern is that having gone in naively and not managed any logistical chain, the Russians will actually learn and for example repair the railway lines that Ukraine blew up on day 1 so that they could not be used for Russian re-supply. The Russians already have a large train with armour on in the south. If they do sort things out it could be a problem. Hopefully Ukraine has people in place to ensure no hasty bridges or repairs are made- the F-16s could help if they do materialise

[ArmChairCivvy]

Ukrainian special forces attacked a Russian controlled airfield near Kherson, destroying 30 helicopters

Ukrainian forces use MLRS to sink a Russian vessel near Odessa

That is of course a generic name (covers Grad); I doubt they have any (G)MLRS?

[Phil Sayers]

I think the rate will drop off (indeed the last few days have already seen fewer convoys savaged) simply because those big fat dumb and convoys are no longer there. The Russian troops are either dead, more wary or have fled.

A very fair point but the counterpoint is that urban combat in the major cities would likely ensure high casualties. Sadly I do anticipate that they will increase the firepower they are using to bombard cities from afar and tighten the sieges but time is not on their side here. Sieges of major cities in Syria went on for years (although it is possible that Ukrainians will not be willing to endure what Syrians endured) and still needed extensive urban combat to resolve - Russia simply cannot apply an 'Aleppo strategy' because it would take too long, instead they will have to move in and soon.

[Phil Sayers]

That is of course a generic name (covers Grad); I doubt they have any (G)MLRS?

They say it was struck with Grads (one hell of a salvo given their accuracy or lack thereof) and it seems to be true. However, the ship has not actually been sunk. It has gone home feeling poorly.

[ArmChairCivvy]

unless this madness has ended before the end of the month

We are on track to 2400 AFVs being lost... if somehow the end/ a truce can be reached by then
- the count of civilian casualties must be hugely understated, and bound to go up

[ArmChairCivvy]

wonder just how sensible it is as opposed to just requesting more and more air defence weaponry so they can engage anything in the sky with it?

the stuff they have (as opposed to what they did have, of which much must have been destroyed by now) is lacking in vertical reach
... so you could easily imagine the Ruskies (who now, with the dual threats will have to go in low&fast) just circling above (high enough) and then picking up the hi-value targets... with stand-off weapons or just with any ol' stuff

[SW1]

Seen a tv report from Charles Stratford from inside Kharkiv it looks like Dresden in ww2. He was gobsmacked because he bought food from what was a store about 10 days ago now gone. They’re close to surrounding Kyiv they will utterly destroy that which they cannot keep.

[Phil Sayers]

the stuff they have (as opposed to what they did have, of which much must have been destroyed by now) is lacking in vertical reach
... so you could easily imagine the Ruskies (who now, with the dual threats will have to go in low&fast) just circling above (high enough) and then picking up the hi-value targets... with stand-off weapons or just with any ol' stuff

I don't see why we can't go on a shopping spree and start buying up the World's spare mobile SAMs to transfer to Ukraine. There must be numerous old SA-8 and the like knocking around. According to Wikipedia there is a missile for those which can reach 40,000 feet.

[ArmChairCivvy]

There are (unverified) reports claiming to be from a disgruntled FSB analyst that claim the Russian economy will be toast by June

Don't need a disgruntled bod for that; the end result is for sure.

The timing for it is conditional, not on Vlad turning the taps off, but for the other side saying that no money will flow the other way
... a lot of pain for both sides, but it is not a straw for the camel's back; it is a a metric ton of bricks all landing at the same time

No one has asked me for a recommendation; but there you have it

[Phil Sayers]

Seen a tv report from Charles Stratford from inside Kharkiv it looks like Dresden in ww2. He was gobsmacked because he bought food from what was a store about 10 days ago now gone. They’re close to surrounding Kyiv they will utterly destroy that which they cannot keep.

As terrible as that is it is still nothing like what Homs, Douma, East Aleppo etc look like now. Years after the Assad regime retook those places they show no interest in rebuilding them - instead they spend their (granted limited) money on statues of Hafez.

I really hope Ukraine's cities never get to that stage and am thankfully doubtful that Russia has enough 'time' for that to happen.

[ArmChairCivvy]

is still nothing like what Homs, Douma, East Aleppo etc look like now. Years after the Assad regime retook those places they show no interest in rebuilding them - instead they spend their (granted limited) money on statues of Hafez.

Most of the readers here are too young to remember how Hafez's father stopped the previous uprising in its tracks by killing 20 000 in Homs - keeping the city intact, so that it could spin money for him & the cronies going fwrd.
- surgical, as it was within one country and no armed opposition (as part of the protests) had been formed

[dmereifield]

Ukrainian special forces attacked a Russian controlled airfield near Kherson, destroying 30 helicopters

Ukrainian forces use MLRS to sink a Russian vessel near Odessa

That is of course a generic name (covers Grad); I doubt they have any (G)MLRS?

Thanks for the correction

[ArmChairCivvy]

I think he
"Ed Arnold, a research fellow for European security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, said Russia is meeting more resistance from Ukrainian troops than it expected.

He told the Reuters news agency on Monday: “At the current rate of Russian losses, which are not confirmed, but we do have indications that this operation would be unsustainable within about three weeks from the Russian perspective.”

He added: “In which case that they would have to consolidate the gains already made and look to see a way of trying to freeze the conflict on the current lines of advance while they mobilise more forces from Russia.” is right,
counting from today (the news source is not clear on that), but
I have been counting with the same three weeks - but from the v beginning
1. the losses will be unsustainable (by then)
2. the max is reaching the Dnjepr in key points (so as to cut off the East from he West and v.v. - w/o Kyiv falling)
3. there are no more forces to be mobilised (without a call up of reserves... and then the explanation of 'no war' but a special military operation would fall off - or rather: flat on its face even with the censorship in place )

[ArmChairCivvy]

As the fighting will (?) soon move into built-up areas (MOUT), @LJ will get to be rewarded for his CG enthusiasm.

As Sweden has sent 5000 AT4s and Canada at least a hundred; we just don't know if they were all of the CS version that can be fired from inside enclosed spaces

[swoop]

The Polish Air Force would receive F-16s from the USA to replace them. Russia has already made a statement that such actions could drag the countries involved, Poland in the case, into conflict with Russia, but this is being seen as bluster.

It is interesting that one of putin's original "issues" was that he did not want a NATO nation on his border...
So has unvaded Ukraine to move his border next to Polands.

He told the Reuters news agency on Monday: “At the current rate of Russian losses, which are not confirmed, but we do have indications that this operation would be unsustainable within about three weeks from the Russian perspective.”

He added: “In which case that they would have to consolidate the gains already made and look to see a way of trying to freeze the conflict on the current lines of advance while they mobilise more forces from Russia.” is right,

The overnight negotiations seems to result in putin wanting Crimea and the donbas area recognised as russian, and he will end the conflict. That is a huge difference from a day or so ago where it was "all of Ukraine" or nothing. Perhaps the russian Dictator is getting concerned?

[swoop]

Economically, Russian civil aviation will come to a standstill in a month or so.
Aeroflot lease about a 3rd of their fleet and that is now required to be returned (in accordance with sanctions imposed).

The remaining fleet is Airbus and Aeroflot get their servicing is done in Germany... So that isn't going to happen.

A recent Russian design of airliner uses pratt & whitney engines, so that isn't going anywhere in a hurry either.

[dmereifield]

The Polish Air Force would receive F-16s from the USA to replace them. Russia has already made a statement that such actions could drag the countries involved, Poland in the case, into conflict with Russia, but this is being seen as bluster.

It is interesting that one of putin's original "issues" was that he did not want a NATO nation on his border...
So has unvaded Ukraine to move his border next to Polands.

He told the Reuters news agency on Monday: “At the current rate of Russian losses, which are not confirmed, but we do have indications that this operation would be unsustainable within about three weeks from the Russian perspective.”

He added: “In which case that they would have to consolidate the gains already made and look to see a way of trying to freeze the conflict on the current lines of advance while they mobilise more forces from Russia.” is right,

The overnight negotiations seems to result in putin wanting Crimea and the donbas area recognised as russian, and he will end the conflict. That is a huge difference from a day or so ago where it was "all of Ukraine" or nothing. Perhaps the russian Dictator is getting concerned?

Yes, could be the begining of a climbdown, if this turns out to be a true negotiating position. In addition, though, they want Ukraine to change its constitution to forbid joining any international organisations such as the EU and Nato, and for Ukraine to demilitarise. Clearly something that Ukraine can't accept since that would leave Ukraine vulnerable and susceptible to future Russian aggression

[seaspear]

In regards to Poland sending fighter jets to Ukraine
https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/03/07/ ... n-remarks/

[seaspear]

This article suggests already a number of reserves may already be deployed alongside regular troops or Russia in Ukraine
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... bilization
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/4/7328120/

[ArmChairCivvy]

and he will end the conflict. That is a huge difference from

Yeah. Counting how many times he has said that civilians can evacuate from the bombarded cities
... just to shell them once there are more IN ONE SPOT

I have to feel (also) for the ordinary Russians who are sitting between an (ever emptier) fridge and an ever louder TV set (as all the channels are controlled by a certain Mr Putin)
... and if they as much as get up, will be batton charged, before even uttering a word. As the Mind Police well knows what that would be (unprintable... so does not appear here!)

[ArmChairCivvy]

3. there are no more forces to be mobilised (without a call up of reserves... and then the explanation of 'no war' but a special military operation would fall off - or rather: flat on its face even with the censorship in place )

OK, THIS IS NO LAUGHING MATTER, but the above (POST in which there is a quoted) mobilisation call has
E-mail редакції: editor@pravda.com.ua
by Khodarkovski... where Pravda = the truth

[Tempest414]

Seen a tv report from Charles Stratford from inside Kharkiv it looks like Dresden in ww2. He was gobsmacked because he bought food from what was a store about 10 days ago now gone. They’re close to surrounding Kyiv they will utterly destroy that which they cannot keep.

As I said a few days ago Russia knows it can't win long term so it will destroy as much as possible which will cost Ukraine and NATO billions over the next 10 years to repair

[ArmChairCivvy]

It has been estimated that every three days costs as much (to Russia) as what the US spent on rebuilding Iraq ($ 45 bn).

The first of the 20 000 (, but most of that number are Ukrainians, coming back) are now being fielded as “The International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine,” a global appeal for foreigners to come to the aid of Ukraine.

“The first groups are already in the battlefield,” said a Ukraine official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to explain the situation. “A new group goes to the combat area every day.” They have arrived from the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Lithuania, Mexico, India ..."

[Phil Sayers]

Russian tank crew murdering two elderly civilians who were just out driving in their car: