F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

[Pseudo]

Ah but don't forget that buy is over the next 14 years, the bulk of it being after 2020, were still only likely to buy the remainder of the 48 this SDSR.

True, but the point of bulk ordering is to take advantage of current prices rather than build inflation in to the price and ensure that the manufacturer doesn't lose out. Otherwise there's no fiscal advantage over placing piecemeal orders.

[shark bait]

No it isn't, If your ordering a jet now for 2030 the price will certainly be be adjusted for inflation.

[ArmChairCivvy]

around ~$130m per unit, which seems like [...] about £2bn too much

Would you like them to be delivered with engines... may be a few spare ones, too?
- e.g. the French order for 4 Hercs included 4 spare engines, so 1 for 4 spares ratio

Current prices are high prices, because the unit cost will drop with mass production, and LM is committed to that (not through words only, but incentives agreed with the JSF Prgm Office).
- inflation happens, but you can link all these factors buy linking what you pay in year x to what the USAF, or more like USMC, price is for that same year deliveries

[arfah]

....................

[Pseudo]

No it isn't, If your ordering a jet now for 2030 the price will certainly be be adjusted for inflation.

So what's the advantage to committing to such numbers now beyond political posturing and justifying cuts elsewhere by referring to this £12bn commitment?

[jonas]

Osbornes statement on the Andrew Marr show this morning, "to give our forces bigger punch, by 2023 we will have 24 jets on the deck of our carrier".
Please don't ask whether he said carrier or carriers, I can't remember.

[Pseudo]

around ~$130m per unit, which seems like [...] about £2bn too much

Would you like them to be delivered with engines... may be a few spare ones, too?
- e.g. the French order for 4 Hercs included 4 spare engines, so 1 for 4 spares ratio

Has there been any mention that this deal includes spares?

Current prices are high prices, because the unit cost will drop with mass production, and LM is committed to that (not through words only, but incentives agreed with the JSF Prgm Office).

Which would seem to suggest that striking a deal to buy at current prices probably isn't a good deal if you're not going to be receiving a lot of those units until the unit cost has dropped.

[Pseudo]

Osbornes statement on the Andrew Marr show this morning, "to give our forces bigger punch, by 2023 we will have 24 jets on the deck of our carrier".
Please don't ask whether he said carrier or carriers, I can't remember.

The transcript is usually available before midday, so we can check then.

[The Armchair Soldier]

It's on iPlayer now, chaps:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... w-22112015 (go to about 42:21)

So, we are going to step up the aircraft carrier punch of the United Kingdom. We're going to make sure these aircraft carriers are available. They're going to have planes that can fly from them in force. By 2023, we'll be able to have 24 of these jets - the most powerful in the world, the F-35 - on the decks of these carriers. And Britain, second only to the United States, will be able to project power abroad in order to defend ourselves at home.

And that's all he said on F-35.

[Jdam]

This might the overriding theme of tomorrow, lots of announcing that we are going to fill the gaps but no specific details about how much we are going to buy or when they will arrive.

[shark bait]

So what's the advantage to committing to such numbers now beyond political posturing and justifying cuts elsewhere by referring to this £12bn commitment?

There isn't really, its purely political posturing.

138 isn't really a bulk order compared to the scope of the whole F35 project, so I imagine the financial benifits are minimal.

If it does turn out to be true, it is a good sign of a commitment, but the numbers are largely meaningless because we won't be paying for them all now. In 10 years time when we do come to pay for them we will be 2 more governments down the line, each with their own agenda a likley to change their mind.

What ever number George Osbourne prints tomorrow will not be the number we actually get. That number will be down to the next 2 governments to decide.

[Lugzy]

@SB , I was just about to reply to your post , but it seems things have moved on in the f-35 world since yesterday

To say I'm shocked is an understatement. , if it's true and gets confirmed then it says to me the Gov and the mod have come to the decision that the carriers will be the uk armed forces primary , priority asset and other services will be playing second fiddle to them , all services will given the job of supporting them one way or another , but a lot of the support will come from the RAF which will now be a feeder service for the navy .

135 f-35b will in my opinon with out doubt mean A lot more RAF squadrons will be flying these aircraft , don't get me wrong I'm all for the carrier which is operational to have a full air wing capability , but in my belief the F-35b is the solution for the navy but not for the RAF . I'm Also worried what's going to be cut or put on the back burner to finance these aircraft £12b jeeeezzzzz I'm guessing type26 numbers , MPA , more army equipment mothballed ??

I'm not sure if the 135bs is confirmed yet so I'm still in hope of a split buy which I think would be the best decision , I'm thinking we will find out soon enough .

[arfah]

..................

[Pseudo]

So what's the advantage to committing to such numbers now beyond political posturing and justifying cuts elsewhere by referring to this £12bn commitment?

There isn't really, its purely political posturing.

138 isn't really a bulk order compared to the scope of the whole F35 project, so I imagine the financial benifits are minimal.

If it does turn out to be true, it is a good sign of a commitment, but the numbers are largely meaningless because we won't be paying for them all now. In 10 years time when we do come to pay for them we will be 2 more governments down the line, each with their own agenda a likley to change their mind.

What ever number George Osbourne prints tomorrow will not be the number we actually get. That number will be down to the next 2 governments to decide.

Which makes me wonder why there's so much enthusiasm for a commitment that's not really a commitment but potentially gives the government licence to defend cuts or leave requirements unfilled by pointing to a £12bn "commitment" that they've made to F-35.

Though of course, I am pre-empting things and the impact of this in the SDSR and for things like regaining our MPA capability may be negligible. This is just my concern about what this announcement could mean.

[The Armchair Soldier]

Osborne: UK to Speed Up Aircraft Carrier Jet Purchase

Britain is to speed up the purchase of new fighter jets to step up its "aircraft carrier punch" Chancellor George Osborne says, as the government prepares to outline defence spending.

The move will be part of Monday's Strategic Defence and Security Review.

It means the UK will have 24 F35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft available on its two new aircraft carriers by 2023.

[...]

In Monday's defence review, David Cameron is also expected to commit the UK to purchasing 138 F35 jets overall and over a longer period of time.

Read More: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34893614

[Jdam]

24 F-35 for the QE class by 2023 doesn't seem like they are speeding purchasing to me, wasn't the goal to have some available by 2020

[OevetS]

24 F-35 for the QE class by 2023 doesn't seem like they are speeding purchasing to me, wasn't the goal to have some available by 2020

Same here, just sounds like clever words to grab headlines. basically all we will have until 2023 are 2 huge steel lillypads bobbing in the water and wasting years of useful service life.

[bobp]

Yep smoke and mirrors as we already have 14 on order then perhaps they will order another 10 by 2023, 8 years away.

[ArmChairCivvy]

"It means the UK will have 24 F35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft available on its two new aircraft carriers by 2023"

- IOC has always been at 12 FE@R, for being able to declare it. This is just two times the (long ago confirmed) one carrier

This (never seen it from the Gvmnt) I think is just an overinterpretation of what firm orders have been placed (minus the first 4 that will not come over here).
- and now we will get an update!

And the price per piece is going down, in itself a good thing. But if they do not come with the right weapons integrated (very little, ASRAAM and PW4, that is) guaranteed in the partnering agreement...) then a little wait, and spending the $$/££ in a more meaningful way might be called for

[OevetS]

Still 8 years sounds like a ridiculous amount of time to acquire 24 aircraft

[arfah]

...................

[Jdam]

Also this

In Monday's defence review, David Cameron is also expected to commit the UK to purchasing 138 F35 jets overall and over a longer period of time

I really REALLY don't like this why commit to the 138 now when it will take 15 years to buy that amount unless they are covering for cutting something else

[bobp]

So where does our illustrious stool pigeon of a defence secretary stand in all of this, all the recent statements appear to be coming from Gorgeous George and Porkie Dave? A bit of a let down especially as HMS Queen Elizabeth is within a year of moving under her own power and starting trials.

[jonas]

24 F-35 for the QE class by 2023 doesn't seem like they are speeding purchasing to me, wasn't the goal to have some available by 2020

Same here, just sounds like clever words to grab headlines. basically all we will have until 2023 are 2 huge steel lillypads bobbing in the water and wasting years of useful service life.

It doesn't say anywhere that there won't be aircraft on QNLZ by 2020 in an IOC role as was the plan, all it says is that there will be 24 aircraft available by 2023. Going back some time it was stated that F35 will be ready for trials onboard in the 2018/19 timeframe, nothing has been said to change this.

[~UNiOnJaCk~]

Sounds to me like we need clarification from the week to come. From where i am sitting at the moment i am reading the present, but incomplete, picture like this:

- IOC for 24 an initial aircraft to be sped up (the BBC article seems to allude to this suggesting only 8 would have been bought in the same timeframe under previous plans. perhaps Gabby can comment, he has his finger on the pulse of the LRIP blocks and order books?)
- 138 aircraft looks to be back on the cards in this parliament at least.

or.... it could be the clever smoke and mirrors act that has been suggested. Again, Gabby would need to comment on that to let us know of the changes, if any.