Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Contains threads on Royal Air Force equipment of the past, present and future.
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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

I chose links that had enough words in them about the threat made
... taken seriously enough to draw GAO in; they normally only say afterwards how crazy some idea has been

The Hill(.com) is the easiest of all to search as all you need is the article number, which also brings up other relevant commentary, e.g.

Trump hints at bringing overseas production of F-35 ... - The Hill
thehill.com › policy › defense › 497874-trump-hints-at...
May 14, 2020 — President Trump on Thursday hinted that he may move to bring more of the F-35 supply chain to the United States, citing what he called the ...
= original, then whatever commentary has spawned out of it:
Trump hints at bringing overseas production of F-35 back to US ...
today.westlaw.com › Document › View › FullText
2020 The Hill 497874. •. Copyright© 2020 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc. •. Ellen Mitchell. The Hill. •. May 14, 2020.

The business on the Hill is at most times incremental, and the small steps can go back and forth several times before there is an outcome
- therefore the hill-watchers are served better than most others, and are able to google the whole story, rather than a haphazard match with search words (could be one in the whole chain, but dated years back)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Defiance
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Defiance »

"Trump hints" and "Trump says" are dramatically different to "Trump does" - after his first term this should be somewhat of a baseline expectation. This is one of dozens of examples where Trump's ignorance is clearly on display rather than an indiciation of actual US policy.

Wake me up when he starts cutting production of major units overseas

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Ron5 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:
Ron5 wrote:methinks you are talking out ya ass!
If you could read (sounds familiar, no :D ) what I said: I said he said; not did
- now here's some reading material for you... take your time

breakingdefense.com › 2020/05 › trump-on-f-35-we-s...
May 14, 2020 — We get parts from all over the place. ... The president offered his summary of the F-35 supply chain in an interview with Fox News ... its 300,000 parts made around the world, at dispersed and redundant manufacturing plants.

Donald Trump's threat to move F-35 production to US ... - ABC
www.abc.net.au › news › trump-considering-moving-f-...
May 15, 2020 — Donald Trump suggested F-35 production should only take place in the US; Thousands of Australian jobs rely on local production of aircraft parts; The current ... "I don't think it can play out with all the contractual stuff in the ...

Trump hints at bringing overseas production of F-35 back to US
thehill.com › policy › defense › 497874-trump-hints-at...
May 14, 2020 — We get parts from all over the place. It's so crazy. We should make everything in the United States.” Pressed by Bartiromo on whether companies ...

Trump: make all F-35 parts in US; DoD spends $1B on COVID ...
http://www.defenseone.com › business › 2020/05 › global-bu...
May 14, 2020 — It'll take time for them stand up manufacturing facilities and certify new parts. Lockheed representatives told GAO “it would take over a year to .
My point was that his rhetoic has not been matched by his actions so the "UK makes up to 15% of all F-35's manufactured" was, and remains, true. A statement you were attempting to undermine.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Ron5 »

Scimitar54 wrote:Ron5

I agree that only 48 have been contracted for thus far. However that does not mean that it will be the total number.
to be ordered. A similar point of view might suggest that there will only be 3 x T26, because only 3 have been contracted for (even though names have been chosen for a further 5). 48 x F35B is just as unlikely to be the final number, as is 3 x T26. :mrgreen:
Have all 48 been contracted? I don't know. But it's far from 138 isn't it? We Americans read UK newspapers and we know darned well the chances of all 138 being purchased hover around zero.

Originally the UK was going to be the biggest F-35 operator after the US, where are they now in the list, they ain't #2 any more? 4th or 5th?

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Defiance »

Ron5 wrote: Have all 48 been contracted? I don't know. But it's far from 138 isn't it? We Americans read UK newspapers and we know darned well the chances of all 138 being purchased hover around zero.

Originally the UK was going to be the biggest F-35 operator after the US, where are they now in the list, they ain't #2 any more? 4th or 5th?
By my count there's ~12-15 aircraft in production lots that have not yet been agreed of that 48 (if i'm right in assuming LRIP-14 was the last signed off batch as part of the bundle deal)

48 puts us way down the list (8th as far as I can figure)

Trouble is, MOD is cash poor and there's lots of ideas on what we should buy next, and very few offering ideas of places to cut. Sadly F-35 - with the hot line and no direct critical need for MOD to put money down right now - is ripe for the altar.

Add on to Typhoon capability improvements and Tempest coming online, Combat Air spending is going to become increasingly challenged (such an elegant segue)

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Scimitar54 »

There is also just a chance that experience with the “48 x F35B” may just lead to a re-evaluation of our “Carrier Strike” requirements in that the “remaining 90” requirement may turn out to be for F35C. It would certainly make sense for us to prove that the F35B will meet our “Carrier Strike” and “Fleet Air Defence” needs before closing the door on the other option. :mrgreen:

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

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Scimitar54 wrote:There is also just a chance that experience with the “48 x F35B” may just lead to a re-evaluation of our “Carrier Strike” requirements in that the “remaining 90” requirement may turn out to be for F35C. It would certainly make sense for us to prove that the F35B will meet our “Carrier Strike” and “Fleet Air Defence” needs before closing the door on the other option. :mrgreen:
Then those 90 F-35C's won't be forming part of the carrier strike requirement because there's no chance that either carrier will be refitted with cats and traps any time soon.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Scimitar54 »

Who are you Pseudo PM? :mrgreen:

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Timmymagic »

Look like some more good news for Eurofighter coming soon....in addition to Germany's Project Quadriga.
This one has been in the offing for a fair while, 20 Typhoon's with AESA Radar 1 for the Spanish Air Force to replace their older EF-18 that are close to being out of airframe hours. To be delivered between 2025 and 2030. This order would keep the Spanish Typhoon line at Getafe running until 2030. That's not going to take it all of the way to FCAS arrival though, but there is the potential for a future order to replace more EF-18 (this one replaces the EF-18 in the Canaries that are all ex-USN) as this would leave them with c50 EF-18 in service, which are all the A or B variant. They got a MLU between 1992-2000 but you have to wonder about their serviceability, manufacturer support and combat utility into the future (mind you the Spanish military also has to make a decision around their AV-8B+ replacement in the near future so the budget could be tight).

https://world.eurofighter.com/articles/project-halcon

Remember good news for overseas Typhoon lines is still good news for the UK as >40% of the Typhoon is sourced from the UK.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Defiance »

Personal opinion - they'll slowly replace their F/A-18 fleet over time with Typhoon, they'll ramp up spending on Typhoon development to be relevant for SCAF workshare talks and AV-8B will leave service without a direct replacement due to lack of funding

We all saw how France turned the screws on Germany to avoid F-35, I suspect they'll do something similar with Spain

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by dmereifield »

Defiance wrote:Personal opinion - they'll slowly replace their F/A-18 fleet over time with Typhoon, they'll ramp up spending on Typhoon development to be relevant for SCAF workshare talks and AV-8B will leave service without a direct replacement due to lack of funding

We all saw how France turned the screws on Germany to avoid F-35, I suspect they'll do something similar with Spain
Sounds about right. What doesn't quite add up is the current order book keeping the Spanish production line going until 2030. How many have the got on the books? And just how slowly are they building them?

On that note, what's the current state of play for the UK production line? How long can we keep that going for? Is it just the Qatar order (24)that they've got to keep them going?

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

dmereifield wrote:keeping the Spanish production line going until 2030
It was on offer - lock, stock and barrel - for Indonesia, who in the end chose another a/c
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Lord Jim
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Lord Jim »

Spain will probably try to keep its Av-8Bs going well part other nations, buying up spares and aircraft that have been retired from service. Eventually they will have to either go with the F-35B or give up on fixed wing aviation though as I cannot see them affording a CATOBAR or even a STOBAR Carrier.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Defiance »

dmereifield wrote:Sounds about right. What doesn't quite add up is the current order book keeping the Spanish production line going until 2030. How many have the got on the books? And just how slowly are they building them?
So the line closed in January this year with their last delivery but I imagine as many staff as possible got shunted over to their Tranche 1 upgrade program. If I had to guess, they'll be popping these out around 6-8 aircraft a year.

That's why I believe we'll probably see additional production lots put forward to keep the line on life support
dmereifield wrote:On that note, what's the current state of play for the UK production line? How long can we keep that going for? Is it just the Qatar order (24)that they've got to keep them going?
IIRC Qatar deliveries are 2022-2025 with the production line finishing orders in 2024. Sub-assembly production like front fuselage sections may be sustained for longer on German/Spanish orders.

Only chance of extending that date is either Finland or KSA batch 2, i'll leave that up to you to decide if that's promising or not

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Would the new radars (being installed) sort of go through the line, as major works, though using just one step in what is in place?
- more importantly, help to retain folks who are not part of the R&D (that is done elsewhere)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Lord Jim »

I suppose it depends on what the maintenance set up is for the Spanish Air Force. Do they still carry out major servicing at units or do they return the aircraft to industry?

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Lord Jim wrote:Spanish
They are getting new ones, I was thinking about our retrofits
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Defiance »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:They are getting new ones, I was thinking about our retrofits
Spain is also retrofitting their tranche 1's to deal with obsolecence issues, should be done by 2023 I think

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by dmereifield »

Defiance wrote:
dmereifield wrote:Sounds about right. What doesn't quite add up is the current order book keeping the Spanish production line going until 2030. How many have the got on the books? And just how slowly are they building them?
So the line closed in January this year with their last delivery but I imagine as many staff as possible got shunted over to their Tranche 1 upgrade program. If I had to guess, they'll be popping these out around 6-8 aircraft a year.

That's why I believe we'll probably see additional production lots put forward to keep the line on life support
dmereifield wrote:On that note, what's the current state of play for the UK production line? How long can we keep that going for? Is it just the Qatar order (24)that they've got to keep them going?
IIRC Qatar deliveries are 2022-2025 with the production line finishing orders in 2024. Sub-assembly production like front fuselage sections may be sustained for longer on German/Spanish orders.

Only chance of extending that date is either Finland or KSA batch 2, i'll leave that up to you to decide if that's promising or not
Thanks. Little chance of either of those I'd say...but can we fully rule out any other potential customers emerging in the next 5 years? The UK might well be pushing for sales as part of it's new strategic, security and trade outlook (Global Britain etc). Are there any other countries we might be interested? Perhaps the UK- Ukrainian ship funding model might be used to help get deals over the line...

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

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ArmChairCivvy wrote:They are getting new ones, I was thinking about our retrofits
Ours will be done during "Deep" maintenance. This is either carried out at one RAF station for the whole fleet or more likely back at BAe Warton.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Lord Jim »

I do like the idea of the UK "Gifting" a squadron of Tranche 1 Typhoons to the three Baltic States with NATO picking up the tab for training and maintenance.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by dmereifield »

Lord Jim wrote:I do like the idea of the UK "Gifting" a squadron of Tranche 1 Typhoons to the three Baltic States with NATO picking up the tab for training and maintenance.
Why?

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Timmymagic »

Project Quadriga on the way...38 Typhoon Tranche 3 for the Luftwaffe. Bundestag has given the go ahead.

Google translation..

#FaktenZumHaushalt: We procure 38 #Eurofighter the latest generation. Today the #Haushaltsausschuss given the green light by the German Bundestag. The aircraft will be delivered to the #Bundeswehr delivered. For a modern and sustainable #Luftwaffe !


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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Timmymagic »

Wasn't clear earlier but this is actually for 33 firm orders and 5 options. The 33 is made up of 26 single seat and 7 2 seater's. Bit of a surprise as the 2 seaters were thought to be increasingly anachronistic with synthetic training taking over.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Timmymagic »

Interesting chart here from Gareth Jennings. The Spanish figure is much higher than expected. We know the Spanish are looking to get 20 Typhoon to replace their oldest EF-18 in the Canaries. But this implies a much larger buy (probably over a period of time) to replace ALL of their EF-18 fleet (which totals 91 aircraft) with Typhoon. Their 19 Tranche 1 aircraft are also receiving an upgrade.

The Saudi order of an additional 48 still appears to be in play (and that has gone awful quiet, but apparently BAE are still mentioning it on analysts calls). But nothing about the potential Egyptian order of 24 listed. The German 'potential' is in addition to the 33+5 for Quadriga. Seems like Airbus isn't giving up on the EW version and B-61 integration after all. No mention of the potential Austria to Indonesia swap.

Just wish the UK government ordered another 24 T3's to keep the UK line open...and commit to the AESA on the Tranche 2's..

Just a thought but if Eurofighter actually built the EW version I suspect the Italian's and possibly the UK could be tempted. Could even get some more elsewhere, perhaps Saudi.


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