Coronavirus

[ArmChairCivvy]

Interim report from the 'Nordic Lab':
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tota ... IN+NOR+SWE
- no lock down in Sweden
- the real test comes from the 15th/ 20th onwards as Denmark and Norway, respectively, will start to ease their restrictions
- Finland has the regional strategy in place, movements across the demarcating line down by 90+ %

[SKB]

Prime Minister Boris Johnson thanks the NHS for his coronavirus recovery

(10 Downing Street) 12th April 2020

[ArmChairCivvy]

If anything good at all is coming out of the pandemic, it is that globally post-truth populist politicians are starting to be seen for what they are. Science and welfare (oddly both have have a strong connection to health) are making a come back... will it last?
- Financial Crisis was likened to the Great Depression wrongly (the latter lasted 10 yrs)
- whether we come out of this with a V-shaped or a U-shaped recovery will determine a lot of things; whether the Great Depression is seen to have followed a "U" or indeed an "L" regardless it spawned two totalitarian systems (New Economic Policy, NEP, in the Soviet Union died in 1928) and one took much longer to defeat than the other.

[Caribbean]

If anything good at all is coming out of the pandemic, it is that globally post-truth populist politicians are starting to be seen for what they are.

Are you sure? I guess it depends on what you define as populist, but I presume that you mean Trump and Johnson (apologies if you don't - I've been reading the Grauniad and the Torygraph to much recently - the comment sections in both are a complete snakepit at the moment ). Most seem to only call "right-wing" politicians populist, but I personally feel that this is a false distiction.

To my mind the position of Labour in the last election was "populist", in that it promised to give the voters all sorts of things, without regard to practicality or cost. They attempted to be all things to all men with their position on Brexit and to conceal their populist appeal behind a detailed list of promises, but essentially their message was "Vote us in and we'll give you stuff". I don't see them as anti-science, however. Disinterested, maybe.

The Tories, on the other hand came out with their monotonous "Get Brexit Done" mantra, i.e. we'll end three and a half years of sterile political bickering (of which the vast majority of the population were heartily sick and ashamed) and deliver the referendum result - not sure if that is populist, or simply implementing something that the country had aready voted on. I also don't see the Tories as being "anti-science" - they are fairly emphatically "following the science" - maybe not a fast, or in the way that some would like - but it's well known that there has been a great deal of disagreement within the scientific community over what is the right course of action.

Trump, on the other hand is more obviously a populist, in that he works in generalities and vague promises (sometimes made up on the spur of the moment) that are simply intended to make a target audience feel good (MAGA, "Build that wall", "String her up" and support for the Birther "movement" springs to mind). He also is "anti-science" in that he will discard and ridicule anything that does not support his intended course of action. I suspect that that is more what you had in mind.

Likewise, rather a lot of South American leaders (of all political persuations - Chavez, Maduro, Guaido, Peron etc spring to mind) would seem to fit the populist definition and I am sure that there are many other example out there. Not sure if Bolsonaro is a populist, but he does seem to be anti-science

[ArmChairCivvy]

. I suspect that that is more what you had in mind.

Yes, I was taking a wider sweep, should have named names... like the Trump of the Tropics (Bolsanaro).

Upthread I was saying that currently Boris is starting to look more like a Keynesian than a Neoliberal. That's a compliment; but it is also a misnomer. The actions taken should not be seen as stimulus, but rather as disaster relief. Therefore not much can be read of the intended size of the state further out to the future
- he has a good chance to eat Labour's lunch; and now the latest is that in the election the national religion (NHS) was not forgotten, but lately he has become the high priest (can't remember who penned this; and furthermore, it wasn't fully by design)
- however, ahead is a treacherous path to tread. We seem to have packed enough national unity to make the journey.

Post mortem is for later (that was not a plural, but as for the policy chosen)

[SKB]

[ArmChairCivvy]

was taking a wider sweep, should have named names... like the Trump of the Tropics (Bolsanaro)

Who has just fired his health minister; for the latter proposing social distancing
- let's see how much death the Brasilians need to experience before this post-truth populist politician will be be seen for what he is: virus, what virus? Blahh, no news there; the scientists are talking rubbish - who needs experts anyway

[SKB]

^ A bunch of stupid Londoners breaking the social distancing rules on Westminster Bridge last night, literally next to St. Thomas Hospital.
Joining them was the Greater London Metropolitan Police's Chief Commissioner, Cressida Dick.

#covidiots

[zanahoria]

Thread from Owen Jones on Twitter amplifying an article from tomorrow’s Sunday Times on the government’s handling of the Coronavirus Emergency.

Whatever you think of Owen Jones, the article from the Sunday Times doesn’t pull any punches.

[SW1]

I thought last week the narrative was anything out of China should be taken with a pinch of salt, is it now gospel. January and most of February the WHO were expressing confidence in China’s ability to control the outbreak.

Anyway more evidence this virus maybe much widespread

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN21Y2GB

Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.

The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

“With regard to COVID-19, we’re learning that stealth in the form of asymptomatic transmission is this adversary’s secret power,” said Rear Admiral Bruce Gillingham, surgeon general of the Navy.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Reuters has picked up this from the head of an institution (ESM) that will have to navigate between the member states; many of which have expressed quite differing views. Hence I think there is now more credence to the estimate:

"Europe will need at least another 500 billion euros from European Union institutions to finance its economic recovery after the coronavirus pandemic, on top of the agreed half-a-trillion package, the head of the euro zone bailout fund said."
- Reuters has tagged the piece as 'Business news'. 3 hrs old, coming out on a Sunday... something is afoot
- if it is true (wasn't it the chief scientific adviser that warned) that the UK could become the nation with most fatalities in Europe, then we could extrapolate what kind of hit our public finances are going to take over a couple of years

[ArmChairCivvy]

As for the "W" Edward Chancellor contributed an interesting piece yesterday to Reuters breaking views, as to when(ever) the economy
" reopens, the “Boris bounce” observed after last December’s general election may well be replaced by a Covid-crash. When the lockdown ends, how many hibernating “non-essential” businesses will come back to life? Possibly far fewer than the economists have modelled.

In his Churchill biography, Johnson gives the decision to return to gold what he dubs a “fiasco factor” of 10. He can only hope that his own unprecedented shuttering of Britain’s economy isn’t scored worse by future historians. As he recovers from his own personal brush with coronavirus at Churchill’s former abode, Chequers, the British prime minister must be assessing the social costs of the lockdown. Perhaps, he is also wondering whether he too has been led astray by experts. Of course, many other countries have also entered the Great Lockdown..."
- hence I keep my eyes peeled on Sweden https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tota ... IN+NOR+SWE who have only slightly tightened their restrictions (max gathering 500 -> 50 etc), while DNK, NOR, FIN are all in the midst of loosening their tightest restrictions both sides of this weekend; will the gap start closing?

[ArmChairCivvy]

WHO says that there are A, B and C strains of the virus and by the time of Wuhan outbreak B was prevalent and C hit Italy.

A Chinese study finds 33 different, in mutation sequence, but the bad news is (according to https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... a-11976380) that in the study, the researchers assessed the viral load - meaning the amount of the virus - in human cells after one, two, four and eight hours, as well as the following day and 48 hours later.

The most aggressive strains created up to 270 times as much viral load as the least potent type, the scientists found.

Prof Li and her colleagues said their findings also indicated that a "higher viral load leads to a higher cell death ratio".

[Caribbean]

Is it me, or does that report not quite make sense? From a sample of 11 patients from China, from a region nearly 500 miles outside Wuhan - (I thought they contained the virus), they identify 33 strains of CV-19 and decide that Europe got the deadlist strain. And WTF is "ultra-deep sequencing"? Sounds like cod science to me

[SW1]

Sound like Chinese propaganda, the death rate we quoted is right because we had a different strain to Europe and Europe’s is more deadly. Hence face saving to deflect criticism

[ArmChairCivvy]

We will find out; there is a real reason to go through the dirty laundry.

But food security (Covid impact) has now made it to the UN Security Council for the first time. To get focus on the urgency the WFP chief talks about the poorest countries and the next three quarters, but everyone will be impacted over the longer run:
"the new Global Report on Food Crisis published today shows, there are a further 135 million people facing crisis levels of hunger or worse. That means 135 million people on earth are marching towards the brink of starvation. But now the World Food Programme analysis shows that, due to the Coronavirus, an additional 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of 2020. That’s a total of 265 million people. "
- so double, for starters

[ArmChairCivvy]

If we leave "propaganda or not" question aside (= for later) from that Chinese piece of research, the virus mutation really leads to two questions:

1. Severity (they quote 270-fold); if the differences can be established (and diagnosed quickly), then prioritising different types of treatments for individual cases will obviously be a huge benefit
- the study is only a pointer for this

2. Will the mutations mean that one vaccine cannot be effective?
- peer review will probably look into the significance of the findings for this
- " my answer" is almost a month old:
"When thinking about viruses that can mutate, particularly those that need new vaccines every year, influenza comes to mind. However, [prof.] Kuhn noted the structure of the coronavirus itself compared to influenza as a key reason to hope one working vaccine may be enough when it comes to COVID-19.

The coronavirus is "all encoded on single RNA molecule," whereas the influenza virus has eight different segments of RNA, he noted. Two of these, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA), are responsible for the annual variations that require new vaccines.

Kuhn expanded on these ideas of "shift and drift." The former refers to genetic recombination that may lead to increases in infectivity and/or virulence, while "drift" is mutations in key proteins that may allow the virus to evade antiviral drugs and vaccine-induced immunity.

"A coronavirus has different mechanisms for recombination, but it's not going to be as significant or as severe as the flu," Kuhn said."
=> vaccine can be effective, without constantly being redeveloped
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... id19/85604 from March 25

[ArmChairCivvy]

Nick Carter did an exemplary job in the the daily 5 o'clock briefing, re: the input that Armed Forces have been able to provide

[Zero Gravitas]

"A coronavirus has different mechanisms for recombination, but it's not going to be as significant or as severe as the flu," Kuhn said."
=> vaccine can be effective, without constantly being redeveloped
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... id19/85604 from March 25

Great news if true.

[SKB]

I wonder how those anti-vaccination "Anti-vaxxers" cretins would behave if a vaccine became available to immunise themselves and their families?

[SKB]

(Forces TV) 17th April 2020

Army veteran Captain Tom Moore has completed 100 laps of his garden in Bedfordshire, having raised millions of pounds for NHS workers. After finishing a century of laps, completed with a guard of honour from the 1st Battalion of the Yorkshire Regiment, the 99-year-old said he felt "fine" and that he was glad to be “surrounded by the right sort of people". Mr Moore says he will continue walking for as long as people continue donating. (And yes, the total Tom has raised has increased since this piece was filmed!).

[SKB]

(Forces TV) 21st April 2020

The NHS Nightingale Yorkshire and The Humber has officially opened in Harrogate. In under three weeks, military teams have worked around the clock to convert the Harrogate Convention Centre into a temporary hospital. The facility has the ability to take up to 500 patients, if required.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Unfortunately this story does not say whether the individual got ill from either:
"Speaking to RÚV news (Iceland) yesterday, deCODE CEO, Kári Stefánsson confirmed the unusual infection. It is thought the mutated second strain [...] found in the sample taken from this dually-infected patient is one that has not been found outside Iceland, according to international databases.

This is just one of the startling new discoveries deCODE has uncovered from its analysis of the genetic sequences of 40 COVID-19 strains found in Iceland. "
- Iceland has been very aggressive with testing (err, 300k folks in all, though there might a bias in who comes to tests; if you feel well, why bother?) and shied away from restrictions

[Qwerty]

FYI:

News report Summary of the CDS’ briefing from 10 Downing Street, last

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk- ... s-service/

[ArmChairCivvy]

We only think of ourselves (in this threat environment) and so do I - though I do not address 'myself' in plural. However, and I am sure that the discussion is best moved to (if there will be any discussion, that is) to the Geopolitics thread, let's consider how some of the poorer countries will be impacted. Nepal being close to our "defence hearts";

" Along with tourism — another sector sledgehammered by the crisis — remittances are a key source of foreign currency, crucial in an import-dependent country like Nepal. The national bank holds enough foreign exchange reserves to cover more than eight months’ worth of imports – a comfortable cushion in normal times, but then these are not normal times.

Nepal’s food security depends on foreign exchange reserves as well as international trade remaining open, because Nepal is a net food importer: it spent nearly $2 billion on agricultural product imports in 2018-19. Amidst COVID-19, the border with India – Nepal’s major trading partner – remains mostly open to food and other essentials. However, the Ministry of Agriculture recently issued an alarming notice about moves by some countries — including India — to restrict certain food exports. Experts with the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warn that national-scale hoarding by governments could be “particularly damaging for low-income, food-deficit countries” like Nepal. Millions of Nepali migrants returning home from abroad could add to the problem by raising domestic demand for food.
[...]
Reports have already emerged of illegal logging during the lockdown, but long-term pressure on forests could increase, too. Nepal experienced an amazing forest resurgence over the last three decades, attributed in part to out-migration, since migrants’ households farmed less land and spent remittances on cooking gas, reducing demand for firewood from forests. If migrants return home en masse, the consumption of forest resources could increase." https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/coronav ... -lifeline/

Transpose that over to so many countries that are worse off at the starting situation
... and it will not be good for social unrest
... that makes for a recruiting field
and it will not be just many countries 'imploding' but those ripple waves becoming v bad indeed