Coronavirus

[bobp]

Thanks for your kind words, lets hope that society as a whole learns some lessons from this.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Measures re: London can't exactly be described as lockdown, as a borderline and restricting movement across it would logically be required - save for a severe curfew.

As far as I know (Wiki might know better) the most capital city -centric countries in Europe are England/ France/ Denmark/ Finland.
- in France the measures are quite strict over a wider area (and Paris is v close to what might be called eastern France)
- nothing particular re: Copenhagen (practically half of the country by head count) has caught my eye
- measures re: Helsinki and potentially the whole surrounding province will likely be announced tonight, as the two together currently form the epicentre. Perhaps we will see Italy-like heavy reinforcement put in place there?

[Qwerty]

MOT tests extended by up to 6 months.

[SKB]

Clarence House has confirmed that HRH Prince Charles, 71 has tested positive for Coronavirus. He is said to be currently in good health and has 'mild symptoms'. He and his wife (who tested negative) are self-isolating in Aberdeenshire, Scotland.

Prince Albert of Monaco also has the virus.

[SKB]

Idiotic Londoners out sunbathing on Shepherd's Bush Green during a national lockdown....

[Little J]

Start fining the retards...

[ArmChairCivvy]

One would think that a crisis like this gives the Big Pharma a day in which to bask in glory... And it will. At least in the short term.

But look at this advisor to POTUS - who proposes, inadvertantly, to legislate Big Pharma out of existence:
"beggar-thy-neighbor dynamics threaten to escalate as the crisis deepens, choking off global supply chains for urgent medical supplies. The problem is dire for the United States, which has been late to adopt a coherent response to the pandemic and is short on many of the supplies it will need. The United States has a national stockpile of masks, but it hasn’t been replenished since 2009 and contains only a fraction of the number that could be required. Unsurprisingly, President Donald Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, has used this and other shortages to threaten allies and to justify a further withdrawal from global trade, arguing that the United States needs to “bring home its manufacturing capabilities and supply chains for essential medicines.” As a result, Germany is reportedly worried that the Trump administration will make the aggressive move of completely buying out a new vaccine under development by a German company in order to use it in the United States. Berlin is now considering whether to make a counterbid on the vaccine or ban the U.S. transaction." from Foreign Affairs, of March 16, 2020
- guess what the reaction would be:
Patents go down the drain on day 1, every country with the resources will set up supply for generics (NHS is big enough to manufacture the high volume ones, and distribute to providers - not users - at cost). Canada has been doing this (leaving the manufacturing to private sector) for decades
... and the US companies will lose a big part of their market

So that kind of advisors... (and the sensible ones the president does not seem to listen to)

[ArmChairCivvy]

As we can't see everything through the Brexit-lenses (ohh, that would be soo-o easy as everyone has already decided ) let me continue from the point of view of whether we have an epidemic + an infodemic
... easy, that one: Of course, every major event, if it is not just a passing one, is wrapped in that kind of 'delivery'.

More to the point... let's go higher than a helicopter view, as an event in world history and implications at the world community level?
Oops; better sharpen the pencil as it takes a bit longer to answer.

The question is most often posed as whether this human tragedy is going to be folding out as a competition of systems event. Will democracies be discredited (e.g. taking time for concensus on actions)? Or will the Post Mortem point the finger for 'this event' escalating to this scale, to the suppression of information tendencies in totalitarian systems as one of , if not 'the' root causes (and why do these things tend to come out from such, with either of the Congos as notable exceptions)?

OK, let's go back a bit and similar events (global, but of lesser magnitude) like 9/11 or the Global Financial Crisis actually brought more and closer coordination (for a while) by the US and China - and also Russia.

And this time around?
- the first thing that is different is that the US is not leading by example nor showing solidarity
- just narrowly, taking the Transatlantic relationship first: another moment of shock and disbelief to digest
- how to repair/ revitalise the multilateral order? Well, everyone else, the other six of G7, are at it, with a thinking hat on

So back to democracies vs more autocratic systems:
- Korea, Taiwan doing really well
- semi-autocratic Singapore, too
- the very autocratic Iran very badly indeed; so far no correlation

... so someone bigger, like Russia. Only days ago it looked like they were racing towards the April vote (date) to enthrone Putin once again and suppressing the cases count information in order to get there. Well, quick action in sealing the border with China only bought more time, then the global pandemic was brought by a million Russians coming back from their European hols.
- There were of course other reasons for the hurry: the triple whammy of oil prices, state revenues and sinking rouble will now have time to work their effects through to the voters

However, I would posit that this competition of systems view is secondary. Though one would ask why e.g. China is making hay (while the sun shines, of course) from the bilateral contacts with countries needing kit which China had already started to mass produce. Visibility of it is the key word: If China contributes 3% to the WHO Covid prgrm, one might set that against e.g. of their share of world trade. But statistics never beat headlines!

So why would this be secondary?

Because in the end it will be the nationalist hobby horses, America First -type vote winners and all other look-alike political (populist) prgrms that will be discredited. So the winners will be democratic systems, starting to work better again. The virus knows no borders, but still borders will be back. The vulnerabilities created by an all-out globalisation will now be there, for everyone to see. Globalisation will not be nixed, though.
- it will just be rolled back by several decades
- and, ehhm, who has/ have been the biggest winners from globalisation It is time to swap out trade advisers for people who can actually think (it helps if one has been involved in foreign relations, in diplomacy, or in any other form, like... What was it again that Clausewitz said )

[ArmChairCivvy]

The Economist's pick:
https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/75 ... C448_0.png

[ArmChairCivvy]

The argy-bargy about succession order was academic a few days ago; now my phone just beebed that Boris has 'it'
- I hope it is the mild version

In the US (OK, we don't have a president. but near enough) it is all in the law: at least the 11 have been been defined

[Caribbean]

I think the informal tradition in the UK is:

Prime Minister
Chancellor of the Exchequer
Home Secretary
Foreign Secretary

as the four "Great Offices of State". I've read before that the Home Secretary would normally assume the role of PM (pro tem), rather than he Chancellor - no idea why that is - perhaps to keep continuity in the finances?

After that - no idea - maybe the Leader of the House?

[ArmChairCivvy]

Err, the First Minister of State?

[SKB]

Boris Johnson has tested positive for Coronavirus.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52060791

[Caribbean]

Err, the First Minister of State?

Is that the same as the "First Secretary of State" (alternatively Minister for the Cabinet Office - which always sounds dangerously close to "Minister for Administrative Affairs" to my ears!!)?

That post is currently held by one M. Gove Esq. - so possibly yes, though on the TV at lunchtime one reporter stated that Dominic Raab had been "nominated as the PMs successor (hopefully they just meant "stand in", though, as it was the BBC, maybe it was just wishful thinking) during the current crisis", so maybe Gove becomes the stand-in PM and Raab runs the Covid-19 response.

[ArmChairCivvy]

The Spectator says the same: Dominic Raab lined up to step in should he [the PM] no longer be able to fulfil his duties.
- that's what I meant, isn't he the First Sec of State?
- when there is a Deputy PM, then the above title is 'inoperative'

This 'de facto Deputy PM' parlance during Mrs. May's gvmnt was more than irritating - creating a 'third' way and even more...nebulousness

[zanahoria]

UK ministers under fire over ventilator delays
Suppliers say offers were ignored while EU says Britain knew of joint procurement plan

March 27, 2020 6:32 pm by Michael Pooler and Laura Hughes in London Jim Brunsden in Brussels

Boris Johnson’s government came under fire on Friday for missing opportunities to acquire more medical ventilators through equipment suppliers and the EU, even as the British prime minister himself tested positive for coronavirus.

Mr Johnson is self-isolating in Downing Street with only mild symptoms and will continue to the lead the government. Health secretary Matt Hancock also tested positive, while Chris Witty, the chief medical officer, is confined to home after showing symptoms consistent with the virus.

The number of people in the UK testing positive rose by 2,885 to 14,579 while the number of deaths climbed by 181 to 759. The rates of increase suggest Britain is on a similar trajectory to Italy and Spain, the worst-hit countries in Europe, which recorded 969 and 769 deaths on Friday alone, the deadliest day so far.

Ministers say 8,000 ventilators under order should be available for NH use over the next few weeks. The British health service already has access to more than 8,000 ventilators and a total of 30,000 are required.

Several companies have complained that offers were not taken up to provide some of the additional machines needed to save the lives of people with acute respiratory difficulties caused by Covid-19.

They could have had probably 500 ventilators if they got back to me straight away,” Andrew Rayner, managing director of MEC Medical, ventilator parts maker, told the Financial Times. “They’ve missed the boat.”

The European Commission rejected UK claims that an “initial communication problem” with Brussels meant that Britain missed out on participating in the EU joint procurement of ventilators, insisting that the UK was fully briefed on the plans.

Ministers are already facing criticism for the slow rollout of coronavirus testing for doctors and patients and for earlier problems in the supply of protective equipment for medical staff.

With medical equipment suppliers around the world overwhelmed by orders, the UK government has encouraged the development of new ventilators, increased production of models made in the UK as well as imports from overseas.

But device makers feel they have been sidelined in favour of big-name manufacturers with no experience in the field and unproven models. Dyson this week received a government order for 10,000 ventilators designed from scratch, contingent on passing regulatory tests.

Another company, which asked not to be named, said it had written to the business department at the start of last week offering to provide hundreds of ventilators for $15,000 each, but had received no reply.

“My concern is that the government actions don’t match their words,” said one executive there. “Matt Hancock stated that ‘if you produce a ventilator then we will buy it'. Instead the criteria seems to be 'if you can develop a new ventilator in the UK then we will buy it’.”

A separate proposal that could have supplied the NHS with as many as 25,000 ventilators from China similarly went unanswered until it was too late, according to two companies behind it.

Direct Access said it first contacted officials on 16 March with a plan to obtain manufacturing slots of 5,000 machines per week, which it conceived with Dubai-based Topland General Trading, as first reported by the Nantwich News.

“Had quicker action been taken when we first contacted the client, we would now have supplied up to 15,000 ventilators with a further delivery of 10,000 within the next two weeks,” said Andy Faulkner, owner of Topland. “And yet now, there are currently none on order with lead times two to three months away.”

The commission said joint European procurement plans — which were publicly announced weeks ago — had been clearly set out to Britain and other governments.

A commission spokesman: “The member states’ needs for personal protective equipment have been discussed several times in the meetings of the Health Security Committee, where the UK participated.

https://amp.ft.com/content/f9051f66-cfb ... ssion=true

[bobp]

So how much did Dyson contribute to the Conservative Party to secure the deal.

[zanahoria]

So how much did Dyson contribute to the Conservative Party to secure the deal.

It does rather give the impression that the interests of the Conservative Party have trumped those of the nation. I have voted Tory in every GE (roughly 8 in total) except for the last one. I can’t see that I’ll be returning to the fold anytime soon.

[topman]

I wonder how many of these companies saying they could produce thousands of ventilators per week if only you'd contacted as earlier, could have actually done so?

[bobp]

I wonder how many of these companies saying they could produce thousands of ventilators per week if only you'd contacted as earlier, could have actually done so?

They would not have enough parts in stock to build them so the answer is probably none.

[Caribbean]

I wonder how many of these companies saying they could produce thousands of ventilators per week if only you'd contacted as earlier, could have actually done so?

They would not have enough parts in stock to build them so the answer is probably none.

To put it all in perspective, one UK manufacturer (Breas, IIRC) pulled out all the stops and increased production from 220/week to 400/week. The existing UK manufacturers are all small firms, with normal combined production running to around 4-500/week or less. With three shift working that could probably be trebled to 1200-1500 a week.

Some of the firms complaining that they have been ignored don't produce "full" ventilators i.e. the ones designed for invasive/ intubated ventilation - they manufacture CPAP machines (i.e. ones that rely on an external mask, usually used for things like sleep apnoea) - I'm sure they have their uses, but are not ideal for the requirement . Others are simply middlemen, reselling Chinese manufactured machines - the reason for refusal may be more to do with the quality of what they were offering.

Ireland supposedly has one of the largest ventilator manufacturers in the world based there - last time I checked (two days ago), the Irish medical service has managed to source six extra ventilators .... to be delivered within the next 3 months (clearly the manufacturing capacity is elsewhere, only the head office is in the Republic, taking advantage of Irelands "offshore" corporate tax regime)

As for the "missed" orders - weren't they mainly sourced from China? I think, unless desperate, everyone is standing back from importing Chinese goods at the moment. As it is, the Spanish have just returned a large batch of testing kits to China, because they don't work.

Maybe I'm finally giving in to conspiracy theories, but I do find it odd that China has tens of thousands of medical ventilators ready to deliver, despite the vast majority of the country being in complete manufacturing lock down only two weeks ago.

On a more positive note, there are a lot of people trying to produce cheap open-source ventilator designs - this site has a list of some of the current projects, if you are interested
https://opensourceventilator.org/#initiatives

And another idea on how to make better use of the ventilators that we have (this is version 2. Version 1 was used to successfully treat victims of the Las Vegas shooting and was cobbled together "on the fly" as victims rolled into hospital).
https://www.saasceo.com/ventilator-capacity/
https://www.prismahealth.org/vesper/

[bobp]

Others are simply middlemen, reselling Chinese manufactured machines - the reason for refusal may be more to do with the quality of what they were offering.

And price, the price of Ventilators bought through suppliers has tripled in the last week or so, most of whom are offering Chinese manufactured ones and pushing the price up. I think this is why the government are looking for manufacturers in this country, and as you say there is the anti china quality in this.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Ok, good stuff above about supply.

On the demand side there is a big parameter that is now less unknown:
- it was assumed, initially, that each case would tie down the kit for 8 days
- information from Italy is now pointing to (up to) 3 wks

So the estimate for the capacity required need a correction multiplied by 21/8 =?

Don't want to spread stuff that is not official, but like the incubation period (unknown earlier on), this is a key parameter for any modelling/ projections

[zanahoria]

A shortage of ventilators to meet the real possibility of a pandemic was known about in 2016. From the New Statesman on 16th of March:

Government documents show no planning for ventilators in the event of a pandemic
After failing to prepare, the UK now faces a grave shortage of the machines that will keep critical patients alive.

Rest of article:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/h ... qqXev1YuTi

[whitelancer]

Given the fact that consecutive Governments believe they can supply the armed forces on a just in time basis, without maintaining the necessary production capability, while disposing of any equipment deemed surplus to requirements as quickly as possible, its hardly a surprise the NHS hasn't got warehouses full of equipment ready for responding to a pandemic. Failing to respond in good time while deplorable is also nothing new. As for the reports cited they seem to be more of a tick box exercise, with no real plan about dealing with an epidemic.