Future UK Maritime Patrol Options

[Dahedd]

Well if that's the case & it's all decided then the MOD best go talk to Air Tanker & see about getting the Voyagers with no centre line rigged up with a Boom.

It'll be awfully embarrassing to be unable to refuel yet another of our aircraft.

[RichardIC]

OK, a few points.

I don't doubt Jim's credentials either, and at least he gives a strong indication of the way the wind is blowing.

What he said was very deliberate:

3+6+3 P8 airframes starting 2016

I'd speculate that possibly means:

An initial acquisition of three, possibly on lease, in absolute vanilla format to give a very quick initial operational capability. It would suit the UK, mainly because it would make George O, the new saviour of defence, look ever-so virile. For once we won't need to be scraping around looking for personnel (at least aircrew) because we know there has been a minimum of 30 dedicated to Seedcorn at any one time over the past five years - so an initial three should be doable.

It would probably suit Boeing as the slowdown in deliveries to the USN has likely compromised their supply line arrangements and they could allocate airframes to the UK quickly.

It would suit the US as they get a) another export order and b) get us taking some bloody responsibility for clearing up our own backyard so they can concentrate on more important things like the Pacific.

Infrastructure may be the biggest hurdle to IOC with 3 by 2016, so wouldn't be surprised if work-up was initially in the US. That's exactly what is happening with the F-35 afterall.

The six sounds like like delivering the full-blown full operational capability once we've been through the whole tortuous MoD acquisition process. God it will be awful but at least it sounds like planning is advancing. Let's just hope there's as little tinkering with spec as possible. That's the key to getting this done properly. As Gabriele has quite rightly said:

Got to stay as close as possible to the USN configuration, to benefit from shared upgrade and maintenance / support programme and save big money

The final three sound like an aspiration - that's ok, it's good to have aspirations.

Lastly, to end this round of speculation, I wouldn't assume 3+6+3=12. Not the way the MoD does mathematics.

The initial 3 may go back to be replaced by the 6 and the final 3 may not happen. If what Jim says is correct that probably only guarantees 6. I think I'm right in saying that in the last days of the MRA4 programme we were only looking at seven aircraft entering service (plus two development aircraft that would not be brought up to full operational spec).

I'm now reasonably convinced that MPA/ASW will be restored by the SDSR2015 and that it will be P-8. P-1 may be a fine machine and even have some advantages but they're inconsequential compared to the long-term gains from plugging into the P-8 support and upgrade programme.

[downsizer]

They won't be leased and we won't see them in the UK till 2017. Plenty of time to build up the crews.

Obviously I don't have a link, so make of it what you will.

[RichardIC]

That's fine, it's still compatible with what Jim has said.

[jonas]

problem is Japanese have been restricted from exporting till very recently. But its Purpose built and Fly by light technology so is ahead of the P8 in some aspects. but we've been involved with P8 but we shouldn't let that cloud picking the most capable platform

It's already been picked. Thing is that you already know that ,don't you.

Cite your source. An actual source this time, not some Secret Squirrel "it's classified so you'll just have to take my word for it" bollocks.

Thanks for those few kind words, you don't know just how much it means to me.

[jonas]

When the MoD or Boeing announces it, then it's true. Until then it's just the ravings of some anonymous internet guttersnipe.

O'h dear it appears that there are quite a few 'internet guttersnipes' on here.

[raven111]

Well excuse me for being sick of all this "this is true because I said so" crap.

[downsizer]

I don't see why it's so difficult to understand why some posters have to be discreet.

[jonas]

Well excuse me for being sick of all this "this is true because I said so" crap.

Which is fine, although why you have to be so abusive about it is a different matter.

[jonas]

What concerns me is that we will have all our eggs, in just a few very large crowded baskets. If the US does vacate Mildenhall, wouldn't it be sensible for the MOD to keep it in a state of readiness, 'just in case'. Though I suppose that nice Mr Osborne is already working out how much he can make by selling it off to some property developer.

[marktigger]

in more ways than one wonder how "independent" our armed forces will be soon if for example Airseeker or leased poseidons had to be used in operations the US weren't happy about?

[rec]

Why not just assume it as 12 as posted, I am sure that the that number has been posted in good faith, so lets take jumthelad at his word.

[serge750]

Hi guys

Can't wait until we do get the SDSR 2015 out in the open, so looking forward to seeing us get our maritime patrol back, seems obvious for an island nation D'oh....bloody politicians! even 3 ASAP will be awesome in british colours
Ps thanks for sharing jim.

[bobp]

Interesting discussion, I too will be happy to see the SDSR come out. Also hope that the navy gets its needed extra manning for the two carriers. Also hope the Voyagers get probe refuelling so they can refuel more Aircraft types like Airseeker and P8.

[Jdam]

The initial 3 may go back to be replaced by the 6 and the final 3 may not happen. If what Jim says is correct that probably only guarantees 6. I think I'm right in saying that in the last days of the MRA4 programme we were only looking at seven aircraft entering service (plus two development aircraft that would not be brought up to full operational spec).

Interesting maybe the initial 3 might have all the standard system with no British equipment integrated but the benefit is that we get them quicker, next 6 come with everything we think we might need in them, final 3 to the same specs to replace out bog standard (more likely leased please) p-8's

[Ron5]

I wonder what the price will be for a squadron of MPA.

A couple less T26? A squadron fewer F-35B? Regiments? Fewer Scout SV?

George will set the budget and the defense review will figure out how to fit a quart into a pint pot. Anyone who thinks the review will start with what's required and end up with a budget hasn't been paying much attention.

Personally I'd use some of the overseas aid to fund a few ships & aircraft, after all they're the first to be deployed in case of natural disasters. Fill the T26 mission bay with tents & meds and send in the bill for the whole ship. I'll bet that's what the other countries that committed to x% foreign aid, are doing. It's not like the Treasury doesn't know how to fiddle the books, they've been doing it for decades with the defense budget.

Oh yes, and take the cost of operations OUT of the defense budget. Like it was until recently. Nobody can fight wars based on budgets although Gordon gave it a good try in Afghanistan.

[serge750]

jdam It would seem logical wouldn't it to lease the first 3 US spec then buy the rest UK spec in a few years.

[jimthelad]

Whilst it is true i have ended up in the gutter on more than one occasion following a sortie to Clatty's in the fair city of the Clyde, I was also brought up as a gentleman. As such I wont dignify the previous comment with a response other than to say I eagerly await your second. The source is not a family member but someone who could lose their job so forgive me for not outing them to satisfy your interest.

AFAIK SDSR 15 will look at MPA restoration with an initial lease of 3 then a purchase of 6+3 with IOC in the USA in 2016. There is an option for another 6 and AAS is cleared for FMS to the UK due to Raytheon UK being involved in some way in the design process. The latter will coincide with a new group of seedcorn personnel coming over to the USA. I think there will be a common US/UK training OCU. This is in line with what several VERY experienced and informed ASW operators have said on more than one occaision and after a few shandies. I uess we will have to wait for the document in Parliament but if it doesnt happen then there will be some very pissed off people in MOD who have spent the better part of 2 years bringing this together.

[RetroSicotte]

Whilst it is true i have ended up in the gutter on more than one occasion following a sortie to Clatty's in the fair city of the Clyde, I was also brought up as a gentleman. As such I wont dignify the previous comment with a response other than to say I eagerly await your second. The source is not a family member but someone who could lose their job so forgive me for not outing them to satisfy your interest.

AFAIK SDSR 15 will look at MPA restoration with an initial lease of 3 then a purchase of 6+3 with IOC in the USA in 2016. There is an option for another 6 and AAS is cleared for FMS to the UK due to Raytheon UK being involved in some way in the design process. The latter will coincide with a new group of seedcorn personnel coming over to the USA. I think there will be a common US/UK training OCU. This is in line with what several VERY experienced and informed ASW operators have said on more than one occaision and after a few shandies. I uess we will have to wait for the document in Parliament but if it doesnt happen then there will be some very pissed off people in MOD who have spent the better part of 2 years bringing this together.

As ever, we thank you for your entertainingly Flemmingesque tactics, Jim. :p

AAS is a massive feather in the cap if they comes to be. Also a death sentence for Sentinel, but given how something HAS to give somewhere, I'd rather it be something that P-8 could actually do the job of than something completely unreplaced.

[Pseudo]

AAS is a massive feather in the cap if they comes to be.

Do you mind if I ask what AAS refers to, I'd like to pretend I'm usually good at acronyms but google-fu is failing me on this one.

[Mercator]

AAS is a massive feather in the cap if they comes to be.

Do you mind if I ask what AAS refers to, I'd like to pretend I'm usually good at acronyms but google-fu is failing me on this one.

Advanced Airborne Sensor

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/exclus ... 1562912667

Pretty sure that is the one.

There is also this one floating around out there as well:

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/the-na ... 1718488424

[RichardIC]

AAS is the Advanced Airborne Sensor - a long range surveillance radar being developed in the US. It's being designed for underslung carriage in a removable pod by the P-8.

http://ukarmedforcescommentary.blogspot ... 20Poseidon

It would allow P-8 to very effectively replace Sentinel.

[raven111]

So we're back to predicating the entire thread on a combination of "it's classified so you'll just have to take my word for it" and "that fits what I want to see so it must be correct".

[RichardIC]

So we're back to predicating the entire thread on a combination of "it's classified so you'll just have to take my word for it" and "that fits what I want to see so it must be correct".

What's your problem? It's a discussion about a future capability - future as in, not happened yet.

If you don't like it stop participating. If you are going to carry on then please drop the insults.

[raven111]

So we're back to predicating the entire thread on a combination of "it's classified so you'll just have to take my word for it" and "that fits what I want to see so it must be correct".

What's your problem? It a disucssion about a future capability - future as in, not happened yet.

If you don't like it stop participating. If you are going to carry on then please drop the insults.

So why do people keep getting shouted down whenever they bring up options other than the P-8 because "it's already been selected, but all the evidence is classified so I can't prove it"?