F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

[bobp]

Sadly the RAF have shrunk from 30+ front line squadrons to about six in the last 25 years, any more cuts would be a disaster. But we cant afford any more than about 70+ F35B and it would not surprise me to see the US in the future join up on Tempest as they have little new on their drawing boards.

[Tempest414]

I have to say that for me 80 would be a good number and I agree they should end up under the FAA. I also agree that the RAF should focus on Typhoon , Tempest and something like Taranis with a view to having 8 manned Sqn's and 6 UAV strike Sqn's. I feel if we ended up with 80 F-35b under the FAA they should be split into 3 wings airwing 1 on QE 20 jets airwing 2 on POW 20 jets and a fleet ready wing 30 jets leaving 10 jets in the pool. The fleet ready wing would have the OCU plus jets able to surge to the carriers or if we replaced the LPD's with a LHA 6 to 10 jets to the LHA

[Defiance]

it would not surprise me to see the US in the future join up on Tempest as they have little new on their drawing boards.

You mean except for the 2 active next generation fighter programs?

[Jensy]

I have to say that for me 80 would be a good number and I agree they should end up under the FAA. I also agree that the RAF should focus on Typhoon , Tempest and something like Taranis with a view to having 8 manned Sqn's and 6 UAV strike Sqn's. I feel if we ended up with 80 F-35b under the FAA they should be split into 3 wings airwing 1 on QE 20 jets airwing 2 on POW 20 jets and a fleet ready wing 30 jets leaving 10 jets in the pool. The fleet ready wing would have the OCU plus jets able to surge to the carriers or if we replaced the LPD's with a LHA 6 to 10 jets to the LHA

(I just posted the Tempest-relevant parts of the article in the Tempest thread).

Tempest414,
This is very close to where I think we should be heading (and I share your optimism about a smattering of F-35 on a future LHD/LHA!). However I think this should be a very slow transition, at least until Tempest (in whatever form) reaches IOC.

This will give the FAA a chance to slowly build up mass to a target of say 75% Royal Navy F-35 pilots by 2030. Any attempts to cut the umbilical early risks mothballing aircraft that the FAA can't afford to maintain and the F-35A mafia getting an excuse to split the last 24+ aircraft.

If both services continue working together well they can look after one another's interests. Having 72-80 F-35b should cover most requirements, swinging from sea-based to land-based, just not both simultaneously.

[Timmymagic]

You mean except for the 2 active next generation fighter programs?

Yes the USAF is moving forward and the USN recently restated its aims for a future fighter (which may well end up being an evolved F-35).

If both services continue working together well they can look after one another's interests. Having 72-80 F-35b should cover most requirements, swinging from sea-based to land-based, just not both simultaneously.

70 seems like the more likely number. 90ish (excluding the 3 development aircraft) would be the absolute dream. Mind you....someone did point out on Twitter that there is only 66 serial numbers allocated to F-35 at present under the ZM range....

[Ron5]

Reduction in the UK commitment to buy 138 will not happen. I have $100 on it. Any takers?

Politicians are rather famous for not doing pointless things and this would be totally pointless. Piss off the US and not save a penny!!

I think rather more likely is that the RAF announces a commitment to the LANCA program as a joint venture with Boeing & Australia. Futuristic & cheap, what's not to like?

Make it carrier capable as suggested previously and we'll all be happy.

Just substitute an FAA F-35B in the pictures...

[Aethulwulf]

Reduction in the UK commitment to buy 138 will not happen. I have $100 on it. Any takers?

Politicians are rather famous for not doing pointless things and this would be totally pointless. Piss off the US and not save a penny!

I think there will be an announcement that the UK will order a further X number of F35s, with any further orders to be 'decided in the next defence review in 5 years time'.

This maintains the political fiction of the UK commitment to a 138 total buy for another 5 years.

What X will be is an interesting question. My guess is around 22 to 42, i.e. bring the UK F35 numbers up to a total of between 70 and 90.

[Repulse]

Agree, why show their hand when there is only a downside. My numbers are that we have @42 a/c by 2024 - 2 x 12 a/c Sqds, an OCU of 15 a/c and 3 test a/c. Another 2 x 12 a/c squadrons gets you to 66.

If allocated solely to the CVFs and combined with a future UAV this is credible.

[topman]

Reduction in the UK commitment to buy 138 will not happen. I have $100 on it. Any takers?

What makes you say that?

[Scimitar54]

What about + c.30% for Maintenance/Attrition Reserve? = 96

[Scimitar54]

Oops, should have been 88! Well, this is the Silly Season.

[Lord Jim]

We might by the whole 138, but I doubt we will ever have more than 50 to 60 in service at any one time, and the programme will probably end up being stretched past 2030 and beyond..

[Ron5]

Reduction in the UK commitment to buy 138 will not happen. I have $100 on it. Any takers?

What makes you say that?

I thought I explained. Anyhow, cutting the commitment will cause unpleasantness with the US. Don't go thinking that there aren't rumblings over here as to why the heck are US F-35 jobs being exported to the UK. Those folks will just jump on any UK announcement.

And why make the announcement? The 138 commitment has zero time limit, any reduction does nothing to free up any cash because no money has been allocated beyond the initial 48.

Any UK politician would take the obvious route of just kicking the can down the road. "We will keep the UK commitment to the US of purchasing 138 F-35's over the life of the program". This is quite independent from any actual further purchases as Aethelwolf suggests.

And who knows what would happen if Tempest goes tits up. Plan B might well include more F-35's.

I still like LANCA/Loyal Wingman very much as a cheap(ish) way of force multiplying FAA F-35B's, Typhoons and Tempest. Going halfsies with Boeing/Australia just makes it even juicier. The challenge (as noted before) will be to avoid mission/capability creep.The Aussies can help with that too.

[seaspear]

My apologies for not putting this in a U.A.E post but there has been speculation of the Trump administration's
plan to sell the F35 to the U.A.E
https://www.france24.com/en/20200828-f- ... uae-accord
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-isra ... SKBN25G1I8
There is the suggestion that the U.A.Es recognition of Israel was a precursor to getting the f35, interesting times

[military]

The potential sale of F-35s to the UAE is highly relevant for a UK discussion of Tempest vs more F-35s.

There is little chance Tempest will be much superior to current F-35s let alone equivalent to new production blocks of F-35s available in 2035-2040. This is based on history and budgets. The Tornado ADV was incredibly behind the F-15A,C and the Typhoon is presumably behind modern F-15 export variants, if only given how difficult it is to upgrade the Typhoon with new weapons and avionics.

Which countries could be interested in Tempest exports? It would be only those Middle Eastern countries who are banned from buying the F-35 because they are in conflict with Israel, they buy radars from Russia or they have lax security around weapons. Certainly the US is happy today to sell upgraded F-15s to Qatar and Saudi Arabia and F/A-18Es to Kuwaitt. My guess is that the US drops such a ban for the Gulf states and all these Gulf states buy F-35s, really leaving only North African countries like Algeria and Egypt and second tier military countries like Malaysia to consider buying Tempest. Most developed, US-allied countries outside the Middle East are buying F-35s and some (Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, France/Germany/Spain) have their own fighter programs.

The same export potential applies to the French/German/Spanish project, which would compete with Tempest in all countries where it is considered. It is unclear whether the next generation USAF and USN projects would be at a price point relevant for exports. Certainly the B-21 is not.

I suppose the government has to push forward the Tempest project because of domestic jobs. It is too bad, as the UK will have even lower military effectiveness going forward.

[Ron5]

The potential sale of F-35s to the UAE is highly relevant for a UK discussion of Tempest vs more F-35s.

There is little chance Tempest will be much superior to current F-35s let alone equivalent to new production blocks of F-35s available in 2035-2040. This is based on history and budgets. The Tornado ADV was incredibly behind the F-15A,C and the Typhoon is presumably behind modern F-15 export variants, if only given how difficult it is to upgrade the Typhoon with new weapons and avionics.

Which countries could be interested in Tempest exports? It would be only those Middle Eastern countries who are banned from buying the F-35 because they are in conflict with Israel, they buy radars from Russia or they have lax security around weapons. Certainly the US is happy today to sell upgraded F-15s to Qatar and Saudi Arabia and F/A-18Es to Kuwaitt. My guess is that the US drops such a ban for the Gulf states and all these Gulf states buy F-35s, really leaving only North African countries like Algeria and Egypt and second tier military countries like Malaysia to consider buying Tempest. Most developed, US-allied countries outside the Middle East are buying F-35s and some (Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, France/Germany/Spain) have their own fighter programs.

The same export potential applies to the French/German/Spanish project, which would compete with Tempest in all countries where it is considered. It is unclear whether the next generation USAF and USN projects would be at a price point relevant for exports. Certainly the B-21 is not.

I suppose the government has to push forward the Tempest project because of domestic jobs. It is too bad, as the UK will have even lower military effectiveness going forward.

In summary: America produces the best stuff so always buy American.

Even I know that's bullshit.

[Lord Jim]

US aviation industry would love the rest of the world to follow that form of logic. They hate competition from European companies/consortiums for example, crying foul whenever they lose a competition and run to the US Government and Congress saying they don't play fair. A bit hypocritical given their past behaviour, look back to the F-104 programme for a prime example.

As for the Typhoon, it is rated as second only to the F-22 in the air defence role, and it isn't all that difficult to add upgrades and new weapons to it, just look at project Centurion. It has also been a great export success and with recent orders it will remain in production for some time to come. With the planned SESA radar (Hopefully both Tranche 2 and 3 will actually get it), Meteor, ASRAMM, SPEAR, Paveway IV, Storm Shadow and its successor, and its continually upgrades defensive avionics suite, Typhoon will still be a very capable "Swing role" platform into the 2030s. It is also a great partner for the F-35 placing the RAF in a strong position moving forward.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Can't imagine any situation where it would be needed though.

C variants being used (off carriers) to defend the Taiwan Strait?
- you may remember what happened in the RAND simulation (Sidekick was not factored in then)

EDIT: Sorry, the quote seems to be a bit too short. So this was about what missile loadout will be enough (in which situations)

[military]

In summary: America produces the best stuff so always buy American.

Even I know that's bullshit.

It's hard to debate the merits of a plane that hasn't been designed yet and won't fly until the 2030s. But that is the financial decision at hand in this integrated review. Justin Bronk of RUSI was paraphrased in The Times piece on 70 F-35s as saying: "He was sceptical Tempest (due to come into service from 2035) will outperform F-35, given US $$$ investment." Given his likely connections, I suspect he is repeating what many serving RAF officers think as well. He wouldn't last at RUSI if he was negative on the British combat aircraft industry without evidence.

I would rate Typhoon about equal to Eagle in kinetic performance and much lower on modifiability, based on various insider discussions on how expensive it is to integrate new weapons and avionics. That is one reason the weapon and avionics upgrade programs that routinely feature in Air Forces Monthly articles drag on for years. This British professor talks about the general issues with Typhoon upgradability:



Has a Meteor missile been flown on QRA yet? Obviously Typhoon is a decade or more behind Eagle on AESA radars.

On Tornado, the Hush Kit site is pretty explicitly against its historical procurement and use based on this lengthy article.

https://hushkit.net/2020/08/04/the-torn ... r-the-raf/

Former Tornado pilots are often open about the flaws of the machine, like this one

https://hushkit.net/2020/07/26/flying-f ... y-hickson/

Former FAA pilot "Sharkey" Ward is also a big opponent of Tornado and Typhoon in his brand new book Her Majesty's Top Gun and the Decline of the Royal Navy.



I do agree export sales of Typhoon have been decent outside the original partner nations, particularly the large order for 72 placed by Saudi Arabia in 2007. A high volume of UK-sold export orders is not needed to keep the assembly line open at a low pace. Also, the potential large German order will keep certain British component suppliers busy. For European export competitions, I would say Rafale and Typhoon (marketed by Germany) both have a good shot in Switzerland, less so in Finland.

[Little J]

Sorry, but that first link about Tonka is biased as fook. Other than the small wing, every argument against it is purely due to lack of investment (an unfortunately common problem outside of the US).

The Female former RAF pilot saying that the F-15E would have been better... There was a 12 year gap between first flights of the Tonka and the 15E... That is an eternity in military aviation.

[Lord Jim]

The F-15C is not on par with the Typhoon in most areas. Regarding kinetic performance, the Typhoon can super cruise at high altitude whereas the F-15 cannot. The Typhoon has far superior high speed manoeuvrability compared to the F-15C. The F-15C is fitted with a first generation AESA which is an improvement of its previous radar but the CAPTOR radar on Typhoon is still superior even though is is still a mechanically scanned array. As for modifications, they are both the same, though the Typhoon is starting from a better position. Yes the F-15 has been upgraded for exports, but the USAF has until recently on tinkered here and there. With the Typhoon the only hold up on modification has been either political, budgetary or both. Meteor is now routinely carried by Typhoon on QRA, especially when on policing duties in the Baltics. No version of the AMRAMM, even those planned, comes close to its performance, which is why the USAF and USN are looking at totally new missiles to match it.

The way I see TEMPEST evolving is a platform that may be the equal of the F-35 in air to ground, but will seriously exceed it in Air to Air, which is what we want from a Typhoon replacement.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Obviously Typhoon is a decade or more behind Eagle on AESA radars.

Not so sure, but the real comparison would be between Radar2 and whatever the newly ordered F-15s will be rolled out with

[Timmymagic]

Has a Meteor missile been flown on QRA yet?

Yes. In December 2018. 4 x Meteor and 4 x Asraam has been the standard QRA loadout since then. In fact sightings of Typhoon with Amraam since then have been non-existent. Which may indicate they're trying to save the remaining life on them, until the D variant arrives, as a war stock. Otherwise it would make more sense to carry C-5's after the initial Meteor missions (to prove capability) to use up their flying life rather than use Meteor flying hours.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing ... 25.article

[The Armchair Soldier]

I think we’re beginning to veer a little too far away from the F-35 now chaps. Feel free to take your UAE discussion to the UAE thread and the Tempest-centric posts to the Tempest thread. Cheers.

[Ron5]

The way I see TEMPEST evolving is a platform that may be the equal of the F-35 in air to ground, but will seriously exceed it in Air to Air, which is what we want from a Typhoon replacement.

If it isn't clearly & demonstrably superior to F-35 & Typhoon, not even the UK will buy Tempest and the UK will be back to a split F-35A/B. The Treasury is rather unsentimental about such things. And I have no doubts that Tempest will be superior.