Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

[shark bait]

It's not quite right for the UK, there are only few scenarios where laying down that much ordinance in one sortie would be useful. There are certainly much higher priorities.

Looking far out into the future a larger manned platform begins to make sense. We will see humans moving out of the combat role, moving up to be drone commanders. Perhaps in that instance it will make sense to place the humans in a large, high endurance, high payload platform, commanding a swarm of drone wingmen to do the combat.

[Defiance]

Nobody wants a low number of extremely expensive silver bullets

... like 2

I see what you're getting at

You could argue that B-21 wouldn't just be a strike aircraft, that could provide some sort of penetrating ISR/EW capability. I just simply don't believe the MOD wants to up-arm to that degree in this field for £££ reasons as well as operationally.

Plenty more important things need to be funded first, and time is creeping up on us

[ArmChairCivvy]

time is creeping up on us

That is the issue. Good prgrms on the go, but somehow the 20-yr rule (from start to finish) seems to be imposed on all of them.

A good Change Mgt consultant should be hired... I have someone in mind

BTW: the MoD is today holding a day about innovation, what it is (examples from other industries that before the fact were famous for their snail's speed) and what it could mean. A colleague is delivering a speech.

[MRCA]

"Maybe cap the F35b purchase at 80 aircraft and try to buy 12-20 B21s for a true long range"

I think it's being wildly optimistic that we'll be buying as many as 80 f35 in the first place.

There is many many other things the airforce could invest in before we get to buying b21. Mind u it would be a quite fantastic capability

[Gabriele]

What has the RAF got to pay for in the next decade? A400M deliveries will end soon, Voyager acquisition is over, Typhoon will be over in a few years more. Sure, there is the Sentry mid-life upgrade issue and all of the running costs, but the F-35 will be the only significant ongoing acquisition programme during much of the next decade.

It is pretty scary to think that the UK can't afford to purchase 8 or so jets per year in the next decade.

[shark bait]

What has the RAF got to pay for in the next decade?

Protector, hopefully more P8, and hopefully a new AEW platform, the upgrade program is in the £2billion+ category.

Then with F35 to build up and new development program picking up pace the RAF have got plenty of projects to fund.

On top of that theirs a bunch surveillance aircraft that need a life line.

[Gabriele]

Nowhere near what it has experienced in the past decade plus, with Typhoon and Voyager sucking away all that money. Protector is a one billion affair which will be complete by 2023. Poseidon acquisition will be complete by 2021 or 2022 at the latest. "More P-8" is a remote possibility, and anyway not on the cards now. Come 2025 at the latest (arguably sooner than that), the F-35 will be the only major Air programme in its acquisition phase.

[shark bait]

The RAF haven't paid for Voyager yet, they're still paying for it through the next decade.

We haven't mentioned puma replacement yet either....

There is a lot to fund, it doesn't look plain sailing to me.

[Gabriele]

The RAF haven't paid for Voyager yet, they're still paying for it through the next decade.

Sure they are. And they will pay to run all the other fleets too. Still, into the 2020s the number of ongoing programmes in the air sector goes on a dive. Let me remind you what has been going on in the last ten years:

Typhoon
F-35
Voyager
C-17 (purchased 2008)
Puma HC2 upgrade
JULIUS
Chinook new buy
Chinook DCAS
A400M
Reaper
Rivet Joint

Puma and Merlin replacement are aimed at the 2035s. 2035 is the Project End date for the 138-strong F-35 programme.

Yes, there will be programmes to fund, but the pressure goes down compared to recent times.

[MRCA]

Clearly you don't understand the voyager contract. You don't at any stage buy a/c. There is no upfront acquisition cost. Every year they pay around £350m pounds to buy a service that service includes training, maintenance and some personnel. The 10b pound number often quoted is what defence will of paid at the end of 25 years to have used the service.


Also defence acquisition does not go purely by what each service wants the single biggest defence purchase over the next decade will be successor it is and will eat almost every other budget over this period.

Between 2016 and 2026 we expect to spend 10b pounds on typhoon tornado and f35.

The vast majority of that will be spent on buying the 48 f35s and setting up marham and associated upgrades and support contracts. Next will be finishing off the end of the tranche 3a typhoon buy and its sustainment and upgrade programs already announced. The final bit will be sustaining tornado thru to it end of service. No room for a multi billion pound f35 fleet expansion

[Gabriele]

Clearly you don't understand the voyager contract. You don't at any stage buy a/c. There is no upfront acquisition cost. Every year they pay around £350m pounds to buy a service that service includes training, maintenance and some personnel. The 10b pound number often quoted is what defence will of paid at the end of 25 years to have used the service.


Also defence acquisition does not go purely by what each service wants the single biggest defence purchase over the next decade will be successor it is and will eat almost every other budget over this period.

Between 2016 and 2026 we expect to spend 10b pounds on typhoon tornado and f35.

The vast majority of that will be spent on buying the 48 f35s and setting up marham and associated upgrades and support contracts. Next will be finishing off the end of the tranche 3a typhoon buy and its sustainment and upgrade programs already announced. The final bit will be sustaining tornado thru to it end of service. No room for a multi billion pound f35 fleet expansion

I understand, thank you very much.

Also, yes, Successor will eat a lot of money. You know what? The deterrent always does. It has eaten a lot of money in the past decade pòis too, through the life extension of the warheads to MK4A standard. It swallowed as much as the entire Typhoon programme, the other single biggest voice of expenditure in the whole modern history of the british armed forces. As this phase ends, the Successor ramps up. In itself, yes, it will eat a huge part of the overall budget, but unless there is a dramatic escalation in costs, the Strategic component will remain overall within the levels already experienced.

And yes, the period out to 2025 is still pretty crowded, as i said. That's why they are contemplating a delay to some F-35 in those key years. That's where the traffic jam is.
The "multi-billion pound F-35 fleet expansion" i'm talking about is merely the continuation of the programme. It has a 2035 end date. To purchase 138 by that date, the UK would have to order 8 aircraft per year from 2023 onwards. If you reduce the order to 80, it can be even less. Or it can be the same, with a closer end date.
No one is saying to buy more F-35 by 2025, that is patently impossible. But to say the UK can't order 8 jets per year when the F-35 will be the last major programme on the go is to say that the UK is finished. It is ridiculous.

[ArmChairCivvy]

No one is saying to buy more F-35 by 2025, that is patently impossible

A good thing to have one carrier on "littoral duties" until then. Refits were planned every 7 years, so shall we make it 2018+7... and then think again (about how to operate the two , going forward)?

[Ron5]

Folks seem to be forgetting the black hole in the UK defence budget. Current and recent past expenditure is not sustainable. They have to find 10's of billions to fund the current plan let alone increase it.

Exchange rate is a major problem. The P-8 program alone has gone up nearly half a billion because of that. The older a project is, the worse the impact because the older exchange rates, used for planning, were more rosy. Even Pinocchio Fallon once said he feared exchange rates more than the Russians.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Folks seem to be forgetting the black hole in the UK defence budget.

Phil said that he had fixed it

[MRCA]

I understand, thank you very much

Well if you do then you’ll know this “Nowhere near what it has experienced in the past decade plus, with Typhoon and Voyager sucking away all that money. ”. Is complete nonsense.

Phil did fix it however he left and they let the services loose in the sweety shop in 2015 and they broke it again!

[Ron5]

Plus exchange rate issues plus Osbornes mandated "efficiencies" (aka cuts) were not fully delivered.

[Lord Jim]

If the "Black hole", has been fixed it has been done on the quiet and probably why so many programmes seem to be going even slower today.

As for the F-35, I can see us but the 48 F-35B's but we won't order any more until the Typhoon is deemed ready to leave service and then we might not even purchase the same version. We are more likely to get one or two squadrons worth of advanced UCAVs when the US finally brings them on line but including these the RAF is going to struggle to have more than 9 squadrons on line, probably less with wings at Marham, Conningsby and Lossiemouth.

[Ron5]

The first black hole was fixed. The UK now has a brand new black hole.

[Lord Jim]

Given the Treasury seems to run everything these days as it holds everyone's allowance, maybe the SDSR should start out by stating exactly how much money the MoD has to spend over the next five years and then the three services can work out what they can afford, basing their plans on national priorities NOT political ones. That way when somebody asks why we haven't got something they can give a truthful explanation no matter how painful it would be for them. We have to find a way to match resources to aspirations or else nothing will ever change or even get worse. All of the above should be TRANSPARENT!!

[ArmChairCivvy]

Phil did fix it however he left

I know what you are saying, but when sitting as the Chancellor he hasn't really left

the three services can work out what they can afford, basing their plans on national priorities NOT political ones.

- that's why they set up the fourth, which is holding more and more of the total budget

[Ritchie]

Just a thought, but what are the possibilities of extending Typhoon beyond it's 2140 OSD? Plenty examples, the US paving the way with the B52 ... and everything else to be frank. With the UK; Puma (rebuilds) and Chinook (rebuilds and new), to say nothing of the L85 (A3 on the way). Why not Theseus's paradox (Trigger's broom) it?

I am referencing this with regard to Francis Tusa's DESI you tube video regarding the future the RAF.

[Dahedd]

Watched a few of Tusa's videos now. Strikes me as a bit of a bit of a europhile. Seems very big on the French while being very keen to do the uk forces down.

[Antipod]

Xcalibur??

http://defence-blog.com/news/xcalibur-a ... gines.html

A dubious article on a dubious blog, I grant you. Xcalibur Aerospace limited seem to be listed as a U.K. company, with incredibly ambitious plans to produce very high performance, stealthy UCAVs. Can't see anything about them on the interweb though, apart from two articles on the blog linked above, a couple of articles on LinkedIn and a listing on various company registries.

Anyone seen anything else? Or perhaps ''tis pure vapourware produced by some bloke in his basement...

[Ron5]

Watched a few of Tusa's videos now. Strikes me as a bit of a bit of a europhile. Seems very big on the French while being very keen to do the uk forces down.

Ah yeah, don't like the message so attack the author.

[Defiance]

Anyone seen anything else? Or perhaps ''tis pure vapourware produced by some bloke in his basement...

This ^^^

The cost associated with that sort of vehicle can be astonishing. Certainly not a good basis for a business attempting to provide value to its customer.