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Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

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Defiance
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Defiance » 19 Oct 2020, 09:24

For those of us who just use hyperlinks to point to articles than navigating website banners - couldn't find the one from thehill during my brief google

https://breakingdefense.com/2020/05/tru ... ing-in-us/
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-15/ ... a/12252384
https://www.defenseone.com/business/202 ... 20/165407/

To me it sounds like Trump being Trump. Lots of the stories about creating more US jobs seem to be about fallout from Turkey rather than an immediate push to kick out the existing partners entirely.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby inch » 19 Oct 2020, 09:35

Think ron5 we only contracted for the 48 upto now if my thinking is right ? ,but I just can't imagine they only going to stop at that number no matter the outcome of the review , think they might really span it out future numbers tho over a lot longer time tho with the financial burden of covid ,I'm talking lots years

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Scimitar54 » 19 Oct 2020, 10:40

Ron5

I agree that only 48 have been contracted for thus far. However that does not mean that it will be the total number.
to be ordered. A similar point of view might suggest that there will only be 3 x T26, because only 3 have been contracted for (even though names have been chosen for a further 5). 48 x F35B is just as unlikely to be the final number, as is 3 x T26. :mrgreen:

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby ArmChairCivvy » 19 Oct 2020, 12:25

I chose links that had enough words in them about the threat made
... taken seriously enough to draw GAO in; they normally only say afterwards how crazy some idea has been

The Hill(.com) is the easiest of all to search as all you need is the article number, which also brings up other relevant commentary, e.g.

Trump hints at bringing overseas production of F-35 ... - The Hill
thehill.com › policy › defense › 497874-trump-hints-at...
May 14, 2020 — President Trump on Thursday hinted that he may move to bring more of the F-35 supply chain to the United States, citing what he called the ...
= original, then whatever commentary has spawned out of it:
Trump hints at bringing overseas production of F-35 back to US ...
today.westlaw.com › Document › View › FullText
2020 The Hill 497874. •. Copyright© 2020 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc. •. Ellen Mitchell. The Hill. •. May 14, 2020.

The business on the Hill is at most times incremental, and the small steps can go back and forth several times before there is an outcome
- therefore the hill-watchers are served better than most others, and are able to google the whole story, rather than a haphazard match with search words (could be one in the whole chain, but dated years back)

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Defiance » 19 Oct 2020, 13:08

"Trump hints" and "Trump says" are dramatically different to "Trump does" - after his first term this should be somewhat of a baseline expectation. This is one of dozens of examples where Trump's ignorance is clearly on display rather than an indiciation of actual US policy.

Wake me up when he starts cutting production of major units overseas

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Ron5 » 19 Oct 2020, 18:10

ArmChairCivvy wrote:
Ron5 wrote:methinks you are talking out ya ass!


If you could read (sounds familiar, no :D ) what I said: I said he said; not did
- now here's some reading material for you... take your time

breakingdefense.com › 2020/05 › trump-on-f-35-we-s...
May 14, 2020 — We get parts from all over the place. ... The president offered his summary of the F-35 supply chain in an interview with Fox News ... its 300,000 parts made around the world, at dispersed and redundant manufacturing plants.

Donald Trump's threat to move F-35 production to US ... - ABC
www.abc.net.au › news › trump-considering-moving-f-...
May 15, 2020 — Donald Trump suggested F-35 production should only take place in the US; Thousands of Australian jobs rely on local production of aircraft parts; The current ... "I don't think it can play out with all the contractual stuff in the ...

Trump hints at bringing overseas production of F-35 back to US
thehill.com › policy › defense › 497874-trump-hints-at...
May 14, 2020 — We get parts from all over the place. It's so crazy. We should make everything in the United States.” Pressed by Bartiromo on whether companies ...

Trump: make all F-35 parts in US; DoD spends $1B on COVID ...
http://www.defenseone.com › business › 2020/05 › global-bu...
May 14, 2020 — It'll take time for them stand up manufacturing facilities and certify new parts. Lockheed representatives told GAO “it would take over a year to .


My point was that his rhetoic has not been matched by his actions so the "UK makes up to 15% of all F-35's manufactured" was, and remains, true. A statement you were attempting to undermine.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Ron5 » 19 Oct 2020, 18:14

Scimitar54 wrote:Ron5

I agree that only 48 have been contracted for thus far. However that does not mean that it will be the total number.
to be ordered. A similar point of view might suggest that there will only be 3 x T26, because only 3 have been contracted for (even though names have been chosen for a further 5). 48 x F35B is just as unlikely to be the final number, as is 3 x T26. :mrgreen:


Have all 48 been contracted? I don't know. But it's far from 138 isn't it? We Americans read UK newspapers and we know darned well the chances of all 138 being purchased hover around zero.

Originally the UK was going to be the biggest F-35 operator after the US, where are they now in the list, they ain't #2 any more? 4th or 5th?

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Defiance » 19 Oct 2020, 18:30

Ron5 wrote:Have all 48 been contracted? I don't know. But it's far from 138 isn't it? We Americans read UK newspapers and we know darned well the chances of all 138 being purchased hover around zero.

Originally the UK was going to be the biggest F-35 operator after the US, where are they now in the list, they ain't #2 any more? 4th or 5th?


By my count there's ~12-15 aircraft in production lots that have not yet been agreed of that 48 (if i'm right in assuming LRIP-14 was the last signed off batch as part of the bundle deal)

48 puts us way down the list (8th as far as I can figure)

Trouble is, MOD is cash poor and there's lots of ideas on what we should buy next, and very few offering ideas of places to cut. Sadly F-35 - with the hot line and no direct critical need for MOD to put money down right now - is ripe for the altar.

Add on to Typhoon capability improvements and Tempest coming online, Combat Air spending is going to become increasingly challenged (such an elegant segue)

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Scimitar54 » 19 Oct 2020, 21:19

There is also just a chance that experience with the “48 x F35B” may just lead to a re-evaluation of our “Carrier Strike” requirements in that the “remaining 90” requirement may turn out to be for F35C. It would certainly make sense for us to prove that the F35B will meet our “Carrier Strike” and “Fleet Air Defence” needs before closing the door on the other option. :mrgreen:

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Pseudo » 19 Oct 2020, 21:34

Scimitar54 wrote:There is also just a chance that experience with the “48 x F35B” may just lead to a re-evaluation of our “Carrier Strike” requirements in that the “remaining 90” requirement may turn out to be for F35C. It would certainly make sense for us to prove that the F35B will meet our “Carrier Strike” and “Fleet Air Defence” needs before closing the door on the other option. :mrgreen:

Then those 90 F-35C's won't be forming part of the carrier strike requirement because there's no chance that either carrier will be refitted with cats and traps any time soon.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Scimitar54 » 19 Oct 2020, 22:02

Who are you Pseudo PM? :mrgreen:

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Timmymagic » 20 Oct 2020, 15:45

Look like some more good news for Eurofighter coming soon....in addition to Germany's Project Quadriga.
This one has been in the offing for a fair while, 20 Typhoon's with AESA Radar 1 for the Spanish Air Force to replace their older EF-18 that are close to being out of airframe hours. To be delivered between 2025 and 2030. This order would keep the Spanish Typhoon line at Getafe running until 2030. That's not going to take it all of the way to FCAS arrival though, but there is the potential for a future order to replace more EF-18 (this one replaces the EF-18 in the Canaries that are all ex-USN) as this would leave them with c50 EF-18 in service, which are all the A or B variant. They got a MLU between 1992-2000 but you have to wonder about their serviceability, manufacturer support and combat utility into the future (mind you the Spanish military also has to make a decision around their AV-8B+ replacement in the near future so the budget could be tight).

https://world.eurofighter.com/articles/project-halcon

Remember good news for overseas Typhoon lines is still good news for the UK as >40% of the Typhoon is sourced from the UK.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Defiance » 20 Oct 2020, 19:58

Personal opinion - they'll slowly replace their F/A-18 fleet over time with Typhoon, they'll ramp up spending on Typhoon development to be relevant for SCAF workshare talks and AV-8B will leave service without a direct replacement due to lack of funding

We all saw how France turned the screws on Germany to avoid F-35, I suspect they'll do something similar with Spain

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby dmereifield » 21 Oct 2020, 00:31

Defiance wrote:Personal opinion - they'll slowly replace their F/A-18 fleet over time with Typhoon, they'll ramp up spending on Typhoon development to be relevant for SCAF workshare talks and AV-8B will leave service without a direct replacement due to lack of funding

We all saw how France turned the screws on Germany to avoid F-35, I suspect they'll do something similar with Spain


Sounds about right. What doesn't quite add up is the current order book keeping the Spanish production line going until 2030. How many have the got on the books? And just how slowly are they building them?

On that note, what's the current state of play for the UK production line? How long can we keep that going for? Is it just the Qatar order (24)that they've got to keep them going?

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby ArmChairCivvy » 21 Oct 2020, 01:45

dmereifield wrote:keeping the Spanish production line going until 2030
It was on offer - lock, stock and barrel - for Indonesia, who in the end chose another a/c

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Lord Jim » 21 Oct 2020, 02:54

Spain will probably try to keep its Av-8Bs going well part other nations, buying up spares and aircraft that have been retired from service. Eventually they will have to either go with the F-35B or give up on fixed wing aviation though as I cannot see them affording a CATOBAR or even a STOBAR Carrier.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Defiance » 21 Oct 2020, 08:43

dmereifield wrote:Sounds about right. What doesn't quite add up is the current order book keeping the Spanish production line going until 2030. How many have the got on the books? And just how slowly are they building them?


So the line closed in January this year with their last delivery but I imagine as many staff as possible got shunted over to their Tranche 1 upgrade program. If I had to guess, they'll be popping these out around 6-8 aircraft a year.

That's why I believe we'll probably see additional production lots put forward to keep the line on life support

dmereifield wrote:On that note, what's the current state of play for the UK production line? How long can we keep that going for? Is it just the Qatar order (24)that they've got to keep them going?


IIRC Qatar deliveries are 2022-2025 with the production line finishing orders in 2024. Sub-assembly production like front fuselage sections may be sustained for longer on German/Spanish orders.

Only chance of extending that date is either Finland or KSA batch 2, i'll leave that up to you to decide if that's promising or not

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby ArmChairCivvy » 21 Oct 2020, 09:18

Would the new radars (being installed) sort of go through the line, as major works, though using just one step in what is in place?
- more importantly, help to retain folks who are not part of the R&D (that is done elsewhere)

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Lord Jim » 21 Oct 2020, 09:58

I suppose it depends on what the maintenance set up is for the Spanish Air Force. Do they still carry out major servicing at units or do they return the aircraft to industry?

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby ArmChairCivvy » 21 Oct 2020, 10:59

Lord Jim wrote:Spanish
They are getting new ones, I was thinking about our retrofits

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Defiance » 21 Oct 2020, 12:00

ArmChairCivvy wrote:They are getting new ones, I was thinking about our retrofits


Spain is also retrofitting their tranche 1's to deal with obsolecence issues, should be done by 2023 I think

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby dmereifield » 21 Oct 2020, 12:47

Defiance wrote:
dmereifield wrote:Sounds about right. What doesn't quite add up is the current order book keeping the Spanish production line going until 2030. How many have the got on the books? And just how slowly are they building them?


So the line closed in January this year with their last delivery but I imagine as many staff as possible got shunted over to their Tranche 1 upgrade program. If I had to guess, they'll be popping these out around 6-8 aircraft a year.

That's why I believe we'll probably see additional production lots put forward to keep the line on life support

dmereifield wrote:On that note, what's the current state of play for the UK production line? How long can we keep that going for? Is it just the Qatar order (24)that they've got to keep them going?


IIRC Qatar deliveries are 2022-2025 with the production line finishing orders in 2024. Sub-assembly production like front fuselage sections may be sustained for longer on German/Spanish orders.

Only chance of extending that date is either Finland or KSA batch 2, i'll leave that up to you to decide if that's promising or not


Thanks. Little chance of either of those I'd say...but can we fully rule out any other potential customers emerging in the next 5 years? The UK might well be pushing for sales as part of it's new strategic, security and trade outlook (Global Britain etc). Are there any other countries we might be interested? Perhaps the UK- Ukrainian ship funding model might be used to help get deals over the line...

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Lord Jim » 21 Oct 2020, 13:40

ArmChairCivvy wrote:They are getting new ones, I was thinking about our retrofits

Ours will be done during "Deep" maintenance. This is either carried out at one RAF station for the whole fleet or more likely back at BAe Warton.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby Lord Jim » 21 Oct 2020, 13:42

I do like the idea of the UK "Gifting" a squadron of Tranche 1 Typhoons to the three Baltic States with NATO picking up the tab for training and maintenance.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Postby dmereifield » 21 Oct 2020, 13:58

Lord Jim wrote:I do like the idea of the UK "Gifting" a squadron of Tranche 1 Typhoons to the three Baltic States with NATO picking up the tab for training and maintenance.


Why?


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