Caribbean wrote:The issue that I have with the "downgraded T26" suggestions above, is that you very rapidly get into the realms of "upgraded T31" costs. How much, realistically, are you going to save by making the changes above? Add to that, the fact that you now have three variants on the same ship, all with different capabilities and availability cycles and you open up a massive can of worms, should you ever need to deploy these vessels on missions that they aren't primarily equipped for.
It appears you and I are trying achieve the same thing but just going about it in different ways. I was formally a big proponent of a ASW T31 but having looked at the figures in great detail I have come to the conclusion that the T26 hull is the best foundation to build the UK's blue water ASW fleet. Littoral ASW is a different ballgame, better suited to the MHC vessels but that's different conversation.
I understand that I won't convince you and that's fine but I will lay out my reasoning so you can understand why I have moved on from the ASW T31 proposal.
1. The UK has spent well over a decade designing the finest ASW platform in the world to ensure that RN stays one step ahead. Why would we now look to build inferior vessels just because they are cheaper? It's the T26's ASW performance that is crucial, it's globe trotting TLAM firing capability is less important and should really be the domain of the destroyers.
2. The main reason the T26's are so expensive is due to the numbers being cut from 13 to 8. The programme had financial issues before this point but that's when the costs snowballed. By building the frigate factory at Scotstoun and upping the order to 11 or 12 it will allow the speed of build to be increased and bring the unit cost down. It would also reduce the SNP's ammunition for sniping at the UK government. How much could that be worth over the long term?
3. The T26 in my opinion should be an escort frigate not a global combat ship. This is were the T26 programme started to go wrong. It was simply due to an over compensation for a lack of destroyers. We really needed 8 to 10 TLAM capable T45's. If we had of got them, the T26 would have, in all likelihood, been the £500m to £600m escort frigate it should have been from the start.
4. I believe that developing a highly capable T31 ASW frigate will cost in the region of £750m to £1bn (although something like a Venator 110/120 could speed things up substantially). An extra £1bn pumped into the T26 programme would make a big difference now, especially as BAE would be very keen to kill off the T31 idea. It would also probably result in the frigate factory getting built.
5. Who is going to build these highly complex ASW frigates? Babcock? They have zero experience in doing so and due to this what is the likelihood that the budget will be kept under control and the vessels delivered on time? This point should not be overlooked.
6. So bearing all that in mind were do we go from here? I believe if we need ASW frigates they need to be T26 based. The upgraded T26's that I have proposed are effectively the additional destroyers that we should have had within the T45 programme. The downgraded T26's are the escort frigates RN desperately need and should have had in the first place and the severely downgraded T26's are TAPS only vessels and are as good as they need to be to get the job done.
Caribbean wrote:The fly in the ointment for that plan is that £3.6b has been allocated for the first three T26, meaning that the last three would have to come in at £2.4b
If the order book is swelled, the frigate factory built and the build schedule accelerated, around £710m for hulls 4 to 6 seems at least plausible. Especially if the TLAM capability was deleted and the Mk45 and auto magazine was removed and replaced with a 57mm/76mm.
Caribbean wrote:Surely it would be better to build 6 "full fat" T26, for approx. £6b, then combine the remains of the T26 budget and the existing T31 budget (so approx £3.5b excluding GFE) to build 8 T31 ASW at around £425-450m each, for a total of 14 ASW-capable frigates. An additional £500m on that budget would push that up to c. £500m per ship, which I think most agree, should be enough to build a fairly decent ASW asset
For the reasons given above I think this is not the best way forward, but if it came to be, I for one would not complain as even though I think it is sub optimal, it is clearly superior to current planning.
Caribbean wrote:The fleet of 8 T31ASW would provide everyday protection to the carriers, allowing the T26s to do the singleton deployments in peacetime, or to reinforce the carrier group(s) in wartime.
Agreed 100%. You propose ASW T31's for this role whereas I favour simplified T26's. As long as the outcome is successful I would be happy with either.