Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

[NickC]

Donald-san confused by your graphic as it shows Arrowhead 140 starting at ~£280M, whereas assuming Babcock when they proposed it had confidence they could build it within budget of £1,250M for 5 ships.

The advantage to Babcock of the Arrowhead 140 was ~90% detail design available as taken straight from the Iver Huitfeldt class/OMT.

[donald_of_tokyo]

Donald-san confused by your graphic as it shows Arrowhead 140 starting at ~£280M, whereas assuming Babcock when they proposed it had confidence they could build it within budget of £1,250M for 5 ships.

The advantage to Babcock of the Arrowhead 140 was ~90% detail design available as taken straight from the Iver Huitfeldt class/OMT.

Thanks. I have 2 answers.

1: First of all, the graphics is not that accurate. I do not have concrete cost range estimation. So the vertical number is a bit vague.

2: Secondly, I do not believe on Babcock's first claim on "can build it within 250M GBP". I think the CEO's comment is done, before understanding what is included in the "RN procurement contract", understanding what a great trick Danish navy did when building IH-class (hull was built in Estonia, the ship yard bankrupted soon, and the navy itself covered significant fraction of system integration work = many tricks T31e cannot do).

Anyway, my point is, I think "a 210M GBP unit cost Leander" will have more armaments/equipments than "a 210M GBP unit cost Arrowhead 140", because the former platform will be cheaper to build and operate than the latter. Ship size difference is so huge, while it looks like they are following similar ship standard. (Innovation of IH class is interesting, but it did not flourish around the globe = no export. StanFlex had the same problem.)

[Poiuytrewq]

I'm not sure where to post this but it will potentially have an impact on the T31 and/or the MHC programme.

It's not good news...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/babc ... -d0bltzcrk

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/has- ... -5thh2p5sx

https://www.ft.com/content/640184a8-d51 ... e0dcf18713

Appledore is a great yard, HMG and MOD really need to get there act together here.

[NickC]

Donald-san confused by your graphic as it shows Arrowhead 140 starting at ~£280M, whereas assuming Babcock when they proposed it had confidence they could build it within budget of £1,250M for 5 ships.

The advantage to Babcock of the Arrowhead 140 was ~90% detail design available as taken straight from the Iver Huitfeldt class/OMT.

Thanks. I have 2 answers.

1: First of all, the graphics is not that accurate. I do not have concrete cost range estimation. So the vertical number is a bit vague.

2: Secondly, I do not believe on Babcock's first claim on "can build it within 250M GBP". I think the CEO's comment is done, before understanding what is included in the "RN procurement contract", understanding what a great trick Danish navy did when building IH-class (hull was built in Estonia, the ship yard bankrupted soon, and the navy itself covered significant fraction of system integration work = many tricks T31e cannot do).

Anyway, my point is, I think "a 210M GBP unit cost Leander" will have more armaments/equipments than "a 210M GBP unit cost Arrowhead 140", because the former platform will be cheaper to build and operate than the latter. Ship size difference is so huge, while it looks like they are following similar ship standard. (Innovation of IH class is interesting, but it did not flourish around the globe = no export. StanFlex had the same problem.)

Your opinion that Babcock's CEO's doesn't understand what is included in a "RN procurement contract" to me sounds totally unbelievably as Babcock is a very, very experianced in MOD/RN procurement contracts.

A "great trick", it was no trick but just financial necessity for the Danish Navy with their very limited budget to use the Estonian shipyard to build the hull and the Danish shipyard was closed as it majored in building large commercial container ships, the last in Europe before succumbing price competition from Chinese and Korean shipyards. As said before the ability of the small Danish Navy to carry out the system integration speaks volumes for their engineering knowhow.

The Leander, as with the A140, detail design is based on previous designs to meet the limited budget, as a result looking at a relatively small ship of 3,340 tons plus say allowance of 10% for life growth to EOL 3,677 tons as quoted, with all the implications for limited payload, a trade-off to meet budget.

The alternative is the A140 and if Babcock can meet the budget, which they say they can, gives a much larger payload with two disadvantages to me, the IPR is Danish and may be more costly to convert to HED for ASW.

[donald_of_tokyo]

Babcock do not have experience of building complex escort.

In general, if you do not know how to build "complex something", you tend to under-estimate the work load (minimum 20%, and in worst case a factor of 2). This is well known bias. So, I won't be surprised if Babcock CEO made a mistake in the cost estimation, when in such a very initial phase of the program (just started Arrowhead 140 project 1 month ago, when he said so).

Also I remember BAES guy said they can build T26 with 350M GBP unit cost (may be it was around 2010 or so). BAES is experienced team, and even so they made a mistake of "factor of ~2". I was not surprised, as well.

Of course, there is a possibility they can do it. But, I do not see good chance of it.

[donald_of_tokyo]

I'm not sure where to post this but it will potentially have an impact on the T31 and/or the MHC programme.
It's not good news...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/babc ... -d0bltzcrk
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/has- ... -5thh2p5sx
https://www.ft.com/content/640184a8-d51 ... e0dcf18713
Appledore is a great yard, HMG and MOD really need to get there act together here.

How much do we need to save Appledore for ~3 years?

We know Irish OPV was very cheap. The four Beckett-class OPVs amounts to 250m GBP from 2012 to 2018. 36m GBP per year is enough? If minimum, may be can survive with 20m GBP per year?

If so, how about 4-6 more Daman 4207 patrol boats for UK boarder force to save 3 years? (total ~60m GBP)

[Ron5]

The idea that the MHC programme will provide the answer to the RN's lack if escorts is not credible.

The focus, and the money, of MHC is on the remote and autonomous systems.

Unlike T31, the MHC ships will be bought under international competition, if present policies are followed.

My money would be on an Anglo-French partnership. Shared design built nationally.

[Ron5]

The plan for the T31 is to get them in the water, and upgrade them later if necessary.

That's not what Sir John Parker wrote or what was said when the Type 31 program was kicked off.

In fact he said the opposite, no expensive mid life refits but sell on the ships and build new ones. Been said before of course.

[Ron5]

Thank you

The plan for the T31 is to get them in the water, and upgrade them later if necessary. Your plan for doing the same with the T26 lite appears to be ignoring the fact that this was in fact MOD's plan A, which failed because it cost to much.

We are now on plan B, which is not just about buying T31 ships, but is also trying to change process for ship procurement and ship building. The old process just kept delivering ships late and over budget. And hence the fleet shrinks and heaps more money has to be spent on maintenance and refits.

I don't have a problem with any of the above and I have always supported the idea behind the T31 programme.

It's replacing T23's with something like Leander is the part I don't like. I could see the sense in something like Venator or Arrowhead 140 but Leander just seems like a dead end to me.

It has to be the right hull and I don't think Leander is it.

It seems like such a waste of time and money to put all that effort into developing the best ASW frigate hull in the world and then not make full use of it.

Just my opinion.

I think we all agree with this comment.

The fundamental problem is that there isn't enough money to do anything different and no juggling of budgets fixes that problem without screwing something else.

[Ron5]

I'm not sure where to post this but it will potentially have an impact on the T31 and/or the MHC programme.

It's not good news...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/babc ... -d0bltzcrk

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/has- ... -5thh2p5sx

https://www.ft.com/content/640184a8-d51 ... e0dcf18713

Appledore is a great yard, HMG and MOD really need to get there act together here.

Didn't see this coming. I thought Babcock's was in great shape. Obviously not. Hope this doesn't influence the Type 31 program but given the history of Brit politicians, I'm sure they can be relied on to do the wrong thing.

[Ron5]

I'm not sure where to post this but it will potentially have an impact on the T31 and/or the MHC programme.
It's not good news...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/babc ... -d0bltzcrk
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/has- ... -5thh2p5sx
https://www.ft.com/content/640184a8-d51 ... e0dcf18713
Appledore is a great yard, HMG and MOD really need to get there act together here.

How much do we need to save Appledore for ~3 years?

We know Irish OPV was very cheap. The four Beckett-class OPVs amounts to 250m GBP from 2012 to 2018. 36m GBP per year is enough? If minimum, may be can survive with 20m GBP per year?

If so, how about 4-6 more Daman 4207 patrol boats for UK boarder force to save 3 years? (total ~60m GBP)

How abut not saving them? If they can't win orders, why should they be kept going? It's not like they have some unique capability.

[S M H]

How abut not saving them? If they can't win orders, why should they be kept going? It's not like they have some unique capability.

They wont count as its not politicaly expedent. They dont unlike Rosyth have the S,N.P. screaming to keep it opern.

[abc123]

The plan for the T31 is to get them in the water, and upgrade them later if necessary.

That's not what Sir John Parker wrote or what was said when the Type 31 program was kicked off.

In fact he said the opposite, no expensive mid life refits but sell on the ships and build new ones. Been said before of course.

So, 50-60-70 millions cost of refit is more that 250-750 millions cost of new ship?

[Repulse]

Appledore needs to be saved - kick of a MHPC programme now IMO.

[Poiuytrewq]

How much do we need to save Appledore for ~3 years?

We know Irish OPV was very cheap. The four Beckett-class OPVs amounts to 250m GBP from 2012 to 2018. 36m GBP per year is enough? If minimum, may be can survive with 20m GBP per year?

If so, how about 4-6 more Daman 4207 patrol boats for UK boarder force to save 3 years? (total ~60m GBP)

That would work, lots of money has been put aside to soften the Brexit effect so funding may be available.

My first thought was the patrol vessels for the Gibraltar squadron. I know it's not a lot but it might stabilise things until the T31 programmes direction is confirmed?

https://www.janes.com/article/81366/uk- ... r-squadron

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/tender- ... gibraltar/

Could the Damen 4207 work for Gib? Not quick enough at 26knts?

image.jpg

With a 35knt top speed the Super Vita's would fit the bill with a more realistic weapons fit. Maybe a bit on the big side?

image.jpg

Austal has a good option with the Fast Patrol 30. Top speed 40knts.

image.jpg

Not many 35knt vessels out there that can operate in a sea state 6/7.

Regardless, a way must be found to sustain this yard until the direction of the T31 programme is confirmed in my view.

[Lord Jim]

This will be a good test case for the NSS. If the Government wants other ship builders to be viable in the future they may have to put their money where their mouth is now.

[Poiuytrewq]

This will be a good test case for the NSS. If the Government wants other ship builders to be viable in the future they may have to put their money where their mouth is now.

If HMG stand back and let this yard go to the wall it will confirm that the National Shipbuilding Strategy was just another political soundbite.

[SW1]

Why is it necessary to save this yard? The UK has too many as it is for the work it has or projected to have.

[Repulse]

Why is it necessary to save this yard? The UK has too many as it is for the work it has or projected to have.

Appledore, with the experience of building the Echo & Scott Survey ships plus recent Irish OPVs are best place to build the MHPCs in my view - which other U.K. shipyard has that recent pedigree outside of BAE?

[SW1]

Why is it necessary to save this yard? The UK has too many as it is for the work it has or projected to have.

Appledore, with the experience of building the Echo & Scott Survey ships plus recent Irish OPVs are best place to build the MHPCs in my view - which other U.K. shipyard has that recent pedigree outside of BAE?

Yeah but MPHC isn’t that interested in a ship it’s the predominantly unmanned systems it’s putting the money into. The ship if there is one will be built by the lowest bidder worldwide or possible bought second hand.

The BAE yard isn’t even working at full capacity not to mention camel laird who at least have some work other than mod stuff. There is over capacity in the system. If we want efficencies more company investment and innovation then you create a centre of excellent and have a long term work and funding stream to provide confidence that can’t be done passing work from one to another. Like it or not BAE is it and type 26 and river patrol vessels are now successful overseas exports those are the platforms that must be developed.

[Poiuytrewq]

Why is it necessary to save this yard? The UK has too many as it is for the work it has or projected to have.

Appledore, with the experience of building the Echo & Scott Survey ships plus recent Irish OPVs are best place to build the MHPCs in my view - which other U.K. shipyard has that recent pedigree outside of BAE?

None, Appledore is a thoroughly efficient yard and it should be supported by HMG.

If this yard is allowed to fold it removes Babcock's English shipbuilding operation, meaning that virtually everything is going to be built in Scotland if it's not built at Cammell Laird. What happens if Cammell Laird rolls over a few years down the line? Is HMG going to support Cammell Laird like it does BAE on the Clyde?

With the every increasing threat of Scottish independence I would suggest this is a foolish way to proceed from a strategic standpoint. Moreover, Babcock is supposed to be the counterbalance to BAE's dominance. Clearly that would provide welcome competition in the UK's naval shipbuilding sector.

The National Shipbuilding Strategy was supposed to oversee a renaissance in UK shipbuilding going forward. Is HMG going to allow one of the most experienced yards in the country close before it's even got started? Maybe....

[SW1]

It’s not the English ship building strategy it’s a UK one. If appeldore was efficient and had gd designs it would have won contracts so why hasn’t it. The renaissance in ship building is that it still exists, I can see it consoloding on the Clyde or roysth if an assembly and block build approach is forthcoming.

There is far bigger strategic question facing the country if Scotland walks away than were a frigate is built. If there is any future vote you put fwd a positive united campaign the SNP will return to were they belong. The Scottish conservatives leader at least appears capable of that.

[RetroSicotte]

It’s not the English ship building strategy it’s a UK one. If appeldore was efficient and had gd designs it would have won contracts so why hasn’t it.

They have won contracts. They basically are the Irish Navy shipyard, and handled all major survey ships for the Royal Navy. But the MoD has (in the absence of a T31 surprise announcement) abandoned them of one of their prime customers.

This was something that people have seen coming for years. The end of the Irish contract was always going to happen; and keeping something in the quiver to support Appledore in the event of an outside buyer not occurring in time would have been a logical and prudent move. It's something most if not all major naval countries do for their yards. Italy, Japan, South Korea, and France do for certain, and while I am not read up on the US shipyards I can imagine they are the same.

Outside of a surprise move now, that was not done in the UK. Look at those useless, unwanted Rivers the Clyde got. Had the Gov actually just committed to Type 26 on schedule when BAE was ready to do it years ago, the money wanted on the Rivers could have gone well for OPVs from Appledore for much cheaper, without having the need to be world traveling like the Rivers are being forced to.

Personally, I'd look at seeing if they can make anything for the Border Force and cover them that way. They're sure going to need more after Brexit.

[Dahedd]

I'm not sure where to post this but it will potentially have an impact on the T31 and/or the MHC programme.
It's not good news...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/babc ... -d0bltzcrk
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/has- ... -5thh2p5sx
https://www.ft.com/content/640184a8-d51 ... e0dcf18713
Appledore is a great yard, HMG and MOD really need to get there act together here.

How much do we need to save Appledore for ~3 years?

We know Irish OPV was very cheap. The four Beckett-class OPVs amounts to 250m GBP from 2012 to 2018. 36m GBP per year is enough? If minimum, may be can survive with 20m GBP per year?

If so, how about 4-6 more Daman 4207 patrol boats for UK boarder force to save 3 years? (total ~60m GBP)

Rather spend the tax payers money on this than some pimped up Chinooks from Boeing.

[SW1]

It’s not the English ship building strategy it’s a UK one. If appeldore was efficient and had gd designs it would have won contracts so why hasn’t it.

They have won contracts. They basically are the Irish Navy shipyard, and handled all major survey ships for the Royal Navy. But the MoD has (in the absence of a T31 surprise announcement) abandoned them of one of their prime customers.

This was something that people have seen coming for years. The end of the Irish contract was always going to happen; and keeping something in the quiver to support Appledore in the event of an outside buyer not occurring in time would have been a logical and prudent move. It's something most if not all major naval countries do for their yards. Italy, Japan, South Korea, and France do for certain, and while I am not read up on the US shipyards I can imagine they are the same.

Outside of a surprise move now, that was not done in the UK. Look at those useless, unwanted Rivers the Clyde got. Had the Gov actually just committed to Type 26 on schedule when BAE was ready to do it years ago, the money wanted on the Rivers could have gone well for OPVs from Appledore for much cheaper, without having the need to be world traveling like the Rivers are being forced to.

Personally, I'd look at seeing if they can make anything for the Border Force and cover them that way. They're sure going to need more after Brexit.

So you’ve made my point and your own point for yourself. They haven’t won any work in years if there so efficient and capable then they would of contracts over the last 3 or 4 years but they haven’t.

As you pointed out we have supported maintaining industry by give opv work to the Clyde to keep them ticking over until type 26 was up and running just like other countries have done.

I think the excitement here is people want to give work to someone other than BAE. That’s a different argument and comes back to the point there’s only enough work for one supplier, we’ve made our bed.

If people want to see investment in future ship systems in that part of the world then the money and backing should go to the Thales facility in Plymouth not appledore.