Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Contains threads on Royal Navy equipment of the past, present and future.
Clive F
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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Clive F »

I think they may go for "an Absolon style solution". They could order 6 (not 5) but decommission the Albions saying: increase in total well decks, increase in frigate numbers, therefore a growing Navy.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by benny14 »

shark bait wrote:3bn for the T26
Where are you getting that price from?

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shark bait
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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by shark bait »

A guesstimate. In that time BAE will have built 2.5 Frigates, and started assembling the 4th.
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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by benny14 »

shark bait wrote:A guesstimate. In that time BAE will have built 2.5 Frigates, and started assembling the 4th.
By 2026 they are going to most likely all be paid for.

Conservatively, lets say £800m for the next five.

Type 26 = £4bn
Type 31 = £1.25
FSS = £1bn

£6.25bn minimum. I am sure there are plenty of other things they need to buy. Not to even mention all the design work for the next lot of ships.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by shark bait »

benny14 wrote:By 2026 they are going to most likely all be paid for.
I don't expect many will be paid for by 2026. The T26 is being built really slowly (treasury's favorite trick), the gaps between Glasgow, Cardiff and Belfast are 2.5 and 2 years respectively.
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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

benny14 wrote: It will be whatever money was left over from the Type 26 program after budgeting for 8 ships.
We have not seen an EP with the T31 numbers in it. The latest version did see some shunting of the T26 money into further away years... a prelude of what is to come
... the drum beat numbers (in months, for both) are likely to come out well before the ££ mlns (the latter type of announcement is seen as "tying the hands" in commercial negotiations... so we will keep getting our numbers from NAO, who are running at least a year behind the discussions that go on between the services, the Head Office and the politicians supposed to be having some oversight over this all) :(
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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by benny14 »

shark bait wrote:I don't expect many will be paid for by 2026. The T26 is being built really slowly (treasury's favorite trick), the gaps between Glasgow, Cardiff and Belfast are 2.5 and 2 years respectively.
With Glasgow been delivered in 2026, you really expect that they will not have ordered an additional batch at the minimum, if not all of them?

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by dmereifield »

Could this lack of clarity about the T31 budget (where it sits, in or.out of the T26 budget) be by design (rather than incompetence, for a change)? The RN/MoD has asked for the best designed available for 5 ships of £250 million each (on average), but that doesn't necessarily mean that the type 31 budget is £1.25 billion. Perhaps they want to see what they can get for £250 million and then decide if they want to allocate more funds per ship, or order more than 5....

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

... by reducing the T26 number?

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Tempest414 »

I think the second batch of 3 will be ordered in 2022 in and around the time they start Belfast. As for the 63 billion over the 10 years 2016-2026 we know HMG has earmarked 31 billion for the capital cost of the SSBN program and has put aside 10 billion in contingency but how much of this will be spent in this time frame we don't know. so what we do know is

SSBN 31 billion + 10 contingency
SSN 1.5 billion
SSS 1 billion
Type 26 8 billion
type 31 1.25 billion

this = 52.75 billion to this we need to add the cost of HMS Magpie and the possible design costs of the MHC program.

I just feel within this 63 billion there must be some more money to make type 31 better another 750 million to bring the per ship budget up to 400 million per

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by benny14 »

donald_of_tokyo wrote:by reducing the T26 number?
He is saying what if the pot of money for the Type 31 is larger than £1.25bn, but they are trying to see what they can get for £250m per ship, and then add stuff on to it as options.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Yes, but it was once clearly stated that T31e budget is coming from T26 ones. Then, more T31e budget means less T26 budget. Simple, I think?

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by benny14 »

Tempest414 wrote:I think the second batch of 3 will be ordered in 2022 in and around the time they start Belfast. As for the 63 billion over the 10 years 2016-2026 we know HMG has earmarked 31 billion for the capital cost of the SSBN program and has put aside 10 billion in contingency but how much of this will be spent in this time frame we don't know. so what we do know is

SSBN 31 billion + 10 contingency
SSN 1.5 billion
SSS 1 billion
Type 26 8 billion
type 31 1.25 billion

this = 52.75 billion to this we need to add the cost of HMS Magpie and the possible design costs of the MHC program.

I just feel within this 63 billion there must be some more money to make type 31 better another 750 million to bring the per ship budget up to 400 million per
HMS Agamemnon's contract was done in 2017. Within this budget cycle. Dont forget the upcoming FSS either.

By 2026 the 7-8 Type 26 will be getting ordered I reckon.

Do we actually know the Type 26 cost? I cant remember what was included in that £3.7bn contract for the first three. Are we expecting all of them to come in at £1.2bn ish per ship?
donald_of_tokyo wrote:Yes, but it was once clearly stated that T31e budget is coming from T26 ones. Then, more T31e budget means less T26 budget. Simple, I think?
No. We dont know what the Type 26 budget was.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Sorry, I think we are not conflicting.
- We do not know T26 total resource. (we also do not know its total cost).
- Therefore, we do not know 1.25B for T31e is to what extent correct.
- But, we also know that T31e cost comes from T26 budgets. So, regardless of 1.25B being underestimated or overestimate, increase in T31e cost results in decrease in T26 cost.
This is what I meant.

Also, I agree I am not optimistic. Even I myself is optimists, history taught me not to be so, in RN budgetary issue in particular.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by benny14 »

donald_of_tokyo wrote: So, regardless of 1.25B being underestimated or overestimate, increase in T31e cost results in decrease in T26 cost.
What I meant was, they could have potentially had the money left for a 9th and 10th Type 26 or part of it, but dedicated they would rather have the increase in hulls instead. So we dont know if there is additional money there after the £1.25bn which would have covered the 9th Type 26.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

dmereifield wrote: lack of clarity about the T31 budget (where it sits, in or.out of the T26 budget) be by design (rather than incompetence, for a change)? The RN/MoD has asked for the best designed available for 5 ships of £250 million each (on average)
Quite.
benny14 wrote:HMS Agamemnon's contract was done in 2017. Within this budget cycle. Dont forget the upcoming FSS either.
What year the contract is done in has not much to do how its cost is accrued ... in-year "cash accounting", which makes it possible to "lose" very big tails of long contracts over the 10-yr horizon of what gets reported under the EP
- that's just what happened with the 2 Bn for the Astute replacement: move it, and make space for other items :oops:


By 2026 the 7-8 Type 26 will be getting ordered I reckon
Sorry to have inserted a comment inside the quote; for the last line 4-5 (perhaps with the 6th included) will get ordered
benny14 wrote:Are we expecting all of them to come in at £1.2bn ish per ship?
No
Then, more T31e budget means less T26 budget. Simple, I think?
No
+
But, we also know that T31e cost comes from T26 budgets
No
- well roughly. Take away carriers, amphibs, all the make-work OPVs, support shipping (even though their replacements have been liberally used to pay for other categories)... what you have got left is the "escorts"
--AAW
--ASW
--and other (generally known as GP)
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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by benny14 »

What price are we expecting the next 5 Type 26s to come in at?

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

When the committee pointed out that UK is in short of 4.9 to 20B GBP in 10 year equipment budget, they pointed out that there was no item named T31 in the list. MODs answer was, it is included in T26 budget.

Anyway, it is just a language issue. Sorry for bothering.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Ron5 »

benny14 wrote:
donald_of_tokyo wrote:Is it true? When the review board asked RN, they answered so. But, it was on the timing of standing up of T31e program.
It may potentially have split in to its own pot by now. It will be whatever money was left over from the Type 26 program after budgeting for 8 ships.

May be more than £1.25bn, depends on what was in the pot originally and how much is left over.
benny14 wrote:
donald_of_tokyo wrote:Is it true? When the review board asked RN, they answered so. But, it was on the timing of standing up of T31e program.
It may potentially have split in to its own pot by now. It will be whatever money was left over from the Type 26 program after budgeting for 8 ships.

May be more than £1.25bn, depends on what was in the pot originally and how much is left over.
The MoD announced after the report was published that they had moved the Type 31 budget from under the Type 26 to become its own budget line. 1.3 billion was stated. Please remember that 1.25 rounded up to one decimal point is 1.3.

If the Type 26 budget is under-spent (hey, it could happen, in theory, maybe) , I'm sure a multitude of hands will stick out asking for more, not just the Type 31 guys.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Ron5 »

Zero Gravitas wrote:Seeing a separate £13.5bn budget for missiles makes me think it's much more likely that T26 and T31 will actually have their various silos filled.
Don't forget the nukes come out of that too. They and their support are not cheap.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Ron5 »

benny14 wrote:What price are we expecting the next 5 Type 26s to come in at?
The only official answer is between 500 million and 1billion and you are free to chose what exactly that covers because no definition is ever offered.

Like when the Boxer procurement guys sat down with the defence committee. "How much are you planning on paying for each Boxer?" "We'd like to buy 500 with a total budget of 4.4 billion" "Does that include other items such as in service support?" "Dunno" "Why don't you ask one of your support guys sitting in the back row?" "He says it includes 10 years service & support".

So how much are they planning on paying for each Boxer? Eff knows. We're not telling the defence committee so we're damn sure we won't be telling the taxpayers.

In the US, McCain would tear them to shreds if he was ever offered the same kind of rubbish.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Caribbean »

benny14 wrote:No. We dont know what the Type 26 budget was.
The only time I have heard an unambiguous statement of the cost of the T26 program was in a speech some years ago where it was stated that it was an "£11.4b program".

Since then, it's all got rather errr .... ambiguous
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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by donald_of_tokyo »

Isn’t 11.4B a cost, not a budget?

We need 11.4B gbp to buy 13 T26 does not mean we have that 11.4B.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Ron5 »

Caribbean wrote:
benny14 wrote:No. We dont know what the Type 26 budget was.
The only time I have heard an unambiguous statement of the cost of the T26 program was in a speech some years ago where it was stated that it was an "£11.4b program".

Since then, it's all got rather errr .... ambiguous
You're thinking of when the Admiral (1st Sea Lord maybe?) in an unguarded moment announced in a speech that the T26 budget was so many billions. He was just trying to show the magnitude of the program, nothing more. Of course all the dumfuks in the UK media and parliament pretended to be shocked by this number and had hissy fits. The Admiral got told off and the MoD issued a statement that the number was wrong.

Only in the UK. Sigh.

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Re: Current & Future Escorts - General Discussion

Post by Caribbean »

Yup - that's the one
Ron5 wrote:the MoD issued a statement that the number was wrong.
That's right - I think they said it was "only" £11.2b - I remember thinking along the lines "so he was pretty much correct"
That was after I got over "HOW much?"
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