Tiny Toy wrote:I see. You believe, as I understand it, that if a nuclear attack occurs then (1) it will be using ICBMs launched from within Russian territory or bombs dropped from heavily escorted Bears, and (2) British intelligence will know about it well in advance anyway. Perhaps they would even declare war on us first. This strikes me as considerably less probable than all the scenarios discussed so far that you've been poking fun at.
I very much doubt that an attack would closely follow the Fourth Protocol script since this is a well understood scenario for the intelligence services. However if an attack happened you can bet your bottom dollar that it would not be possible to definitively assign blame to Russia within the time window for a second strike. They would have to be idiots to let that happen, and they are not idiots.
If Russia gets to a point where it considers launching a nuclear strike against Britain is in its best national interests, then it stands to reason, relations between Britain and Russia are at an
all time low, tensions are at an
all time high - and the United States is almost certainly involved. British intelligence could not determine "well in advance" when a nuclear strike is going to happen -I never even said that- but they would absolutely be part of the monitoring process.
Therefore, I believe ICBMs and strategic bombers are indeed the most likely method of Russian delivery. Not only because this is where Russia is devoting most of its military spending, which strongly indicates this is the method they believe they will use. Nor in fact, only because this is what most experts believe also. But because resorting to the underhand methods you suggest, wouldn't even deliver the intended effect anyway (I.e. deniability).
Why do I think this? Well, logic really. If Britain and the West are already locked in nuclear tension with Russia, then any incoming nuclear strike is going to be automatically assumed as being directed from Russia's hand. We will simply ask questions later, that is if we are still around to ask and Russia is around to answer.
I want some clarification on what you meant below.If you weren't referring to a "Fourth Protocol" scenario, then what were you referring too?
Tiny Toy wrote:if Russia launched a nuclear offensive against us, it would be engineered so as to be completely deniable - for instance, they would say that some of their missiles had been stolen by a naughty unidentifiable and untrackable third party, then suddenly out of nowhere we get armageddon on British soil.
Though we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are. - Lord Tennyson (Ulysses)